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Pollen-based climate reconstruction: Calibration of the vegetation–pollen processes

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  • Garreta, V.
  • Guiot, J.
  • Mortier, F.
  • Chadœuf, J.
  • Hély, C.

Abstract

Palaeoclimate reconstructions are based on the relationship between climate and sediment pollen assemblages. This model is called the transfer function (TF). Process-based TF emerge as an opportunity to better quantify past climate changes. For example, when a process-based model of vegetation dynamics is part of the TF it allows to include atmospheric CO2 concentration and plant–plant interactions as factors affecting the reconstruction. We propose the missing piece for a fully process-based TF: the model linking, at a continental scale, vegetation model outputs and pollen sampled in sediments. We perform its calibration and we explore the quality of fit.

Suggested Citation

  • Garreta, V. & Guiot, J. & Mortier, F. & Chadœuf, J. & Hély, C., 2012. "Pollen-based climate reconstruction: Calibration of the vegetation–pollen processes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 235, pages 81-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:235-236:y:2012:i::p:81-94
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.03.031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marc Kennedy & Clive Anderson & Anthony O'Hagan & Mark Lomas & Ian Woodward & John Paul Gosling & Andreas Heinemeyer, 2008. "Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(1), pages 109-135, January.
    2. Wramneby, Anna & Smith, Benjamin & Zaehle, Sönke & Sykes, Martin T., 2008. "Parameter uncertainties in the modelling of vegetation dynamics—Effects on tree community structure and ecosystem functioning in European forest biomes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 216(3), pages 277-290.
    3. Paciorek, Christopher J. & McLachlan, Jason S., 2009. "Mapping Ancient Forests: Bayesian Inference for Spatio-Temporal Trends in Forest Composition Using the Fossil Pollen Proxy Record," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(486), pages 608-622.
    4. Marc C. Kennedy & Anthony O'Hagan, 2001. "Bayesian calibration of computer models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(3), pages 425-464.
    5. J. Haslett & M. Whiley & S. Bhattacharya & M. Salter‐Townshend & Simon P. Wilson & J. R. M. Allen & B. Huntley & F. J. G. Mitchell, 2006. "Bayesian palaeoclimate reconstruction," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 169(3), pages 395-438, July.
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