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What is the expected return on Bitcoin? Extracting the term structure of returns from options prices

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Listed:
  • Foley, Sean
  • Li, Simeng
  • Malloch, Hamish
  • Svec, Jiri

Abstract

We infer the forward-looking Bitcoin risk premium from options contracts. Using data from 2018 to 2020, we show that the expected excess returns for Bitcoin are time-varying and significantly higher than in equities or gold, averaging almost 80% per annum. A temporal analysis of the term structure of Bitcoin risk premia reveals an upward sloping term structure during Bitcoin bull markets and downward sloping during Bitcoin bear markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Foley, Sean & Li, Simeng & Malloch, Hamish & Svec, Jiri, 2022. "What is the expected return on Bitcoin? Extracting the term structure of returns from options prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:210:y:2022:i:c:s0165176521004493
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110196
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    Cited by:

    1. Cole, Benjamin M. & Dyhrberg, Anne H. & Foley, Sean & Svec, Jiri, 2022. "Can Bitcoin be Trusted? Quantifying the economic value of blockchain transactions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Iwanicz-Drozdowska Małgorzata & Rogowicz Karol & Smaga Paweł, 2023. "Market-moving events and their role in portfolio optimization of generations X, Y, and Z," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 59(4), pages 371-397, December.
    3. Ştefan Cristian Gherghina & Liliana Nicoleta Simionescu, 2023. "Exploring the asymmetric effect of COVID-19 pandemic news on the cryptocurrency market: evidence from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach and frequency domain causality," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-58, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Cryptocurrency; Expected return; Term structure; Risk premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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