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Forecasting house-price growth in the Euro area with dynamic model averaging

Author

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  • Risse, Marian
  • Kern, Martin

Abstract

We use a dynamic modeling and selection approach for studying the informational content of various macroeconomic, monetary, and demographic fundamentals for forecasting house-price growth in the six largest countries of the European Monetary Union. The approach accounts for model uncertainty and model instability. We find superior performance compared to various alternative forecasting models. Plots of cumulative forecast errors visualize the superior performance of our approach, particularly after the recent financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Risse, Marian & Kern, Martin, 2016. "Forecasting house-price growth in the Euro area with dynamic model averaging," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 70-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:38:y:2016:i:c:p:70-85
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2016.08.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Hassapis, Christis, 2017. "Does economic policy uncertainty forecast real housing returns in a panel of OECD countries? A Bayesian approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 50-60.
    2. Robert A. Hill & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2022. "Forgetting approaches to improve forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1356-1371, November.
    3. Dong, Xiyong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2019. "What global economic factors drive emerging Asian stock market returns? Evidence from a dynamic model averaging approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 204-215.
    4. Jan Prüser, 2019. "Adaptive learning from model space," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 29-38, January.
    5. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Rita Fradique Lourenço & Robert Hill, 2020. "House price forecasting and uncertainty: Examining Portugal and Spain," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using dynamic model averaging. Does the state–space representation matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    7. Hossein Hassani & Mohammad Reza Yeganegi & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Does inequality really matter in forecasting real housing returns of the United Kingdom?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 159, pages 18-25.
    8. Tsai, I-Chun & Lin, Che-Chun, 2022. "A re-examination of housing bubbles: Evidence from European countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    9. Wang, Shengquan & Chen, Langnan, 2019. "Driving factors of equity bubbles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 304-317.
    10. Nuri Hacıevliyagil & Krzysztof Drachal & Ibrahim Halil Eksi, 2022. "Predicting House Prices Using DMA Method: Evidence from Turkey," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-27, March.
    11. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    12. Risse, Marian & Ohl, Ludwig, 2017. "Using dynamic model averaging in state space representation with dynamic Occam’s window and applications to the stock and gold market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 158-176.
    13. Linlin Zhao & Jasper Mbachu & Zhansheng Liu, 2019. "Exploring the Trend of New Zealand Housing Prices to Support Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-18, April.
    14. Krzysztof Drachal, 2018. "Some Novel Bayesian Model Combination Schemes: An Application to Commodities Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-27, August.
    15. Risse, Marian, 2019. "Combining wavelet decomposition with machine learning to forecast gold returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 601-615.
    16. Hamid Norfiqiri & Razali Muhammad Najib & Azmi Fatin Afiqah & Daud Siti Zaleha & Yunus Nurhidayah Md., 2022. "Prospecting Housing Bubbles in Malaysia," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 30(4), pages 74-88, December.
    17. Laurynas Narusevicius & Tomas Ramanauskas & Laura Gudauskaitė & Tomas Reichenbachas, 2019. "Lithuanian house price index: modelling and forecasting," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 28, Bank of Lithuania.
    18. Hanan Naser & Fatema Alaali, 2018. "Can oil prices help predict US stock market returns? Evidence using a dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1757-1777, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; Dynamic model averaging; Forecasting; Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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