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Do minimum wages deliver what they promise? Effects of minimum wage on employment, output, and income inequality from occupational choice theory

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  • Medrano-Adán, Luis
  • Salas-Fumás, Vicente

Abstract

This paper addresses the unresolved debate on the effects of minimum wages on output, employment, and income inequality by modeling an occupational choice economy calibrated for a representative OECD economy. The minimum wage sets a minimum skill requirement for employees, which reduces the effective labor supply and raises its price. Consequently, salaries increase, business profits fall, and some entrepreneurs transition to solo self-employment. With a minimum-to-average wage ratio of 0.43 (the OECD countries average in 2020), a 10% increase in the minimum wage reduces output, employment, and inequality among employees by 0.2%, 1.0%, and 2.1%, respectively, and increases total income inequality by 0.57%. If the minimum-to-average wage ratio were 0.55, output, employment, and inequality among employees would decrease by 0.87%, 3.55%, and 5.19%, respectively, and income inequality would rise by 2.09%. In summary, the effects are mainly negative, contrary to what is promised, and quantitatively large for high minimum-to-average wage ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • Medrano-Adán, Luis & Salas-Fumás, Vicente, 2023. "Do minimum wages deliver what they promise? Effects of minimum wage on employment, output, and income inequality from occupational choice theory," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 366-383.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:80:y:2023:i:c:p:366-383
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2023.08.009
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Minimum wage; Occupational choice; Employment; Income distribution; Income inequality; Economic efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • K31 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Labor Law
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship

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