The economics of public transport electrification: When does infrastructure investment matter?

This paper examines the economic and policy implications of the charging, network and auxiliary infrastructure required for a fully electrified metropolitan Melbourne bus network using overnight depot charging. We introduce the concept of minimum and maximum fleet charging capacities, as well as a charging infrastructure augmented total cost of ownership that is faced by bus fleet owners. Our analysis provides policy makers with a range of viable fleet charging capacities and a cost component breakdown of public bus fleet electrification using battery electric vehicles. We find that a minimum of half the fleet's rated charging capacity is needed to maintain operation, which provides a lower bound for network and charging infrastructure costs. Considering the augmented total cost of ownership (per km), charging, network and auxiliary infrastructure costs contribute 10–19%. A gradual transition to battery electric buses over 12 years yields further TCO savings of between 4.6 and 5%. We recommend streamlining the network augmentation process to reduce uncertainty and project delays.