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Short-term electricity demand forecasting using autoregressive based time varying model incorporating representative data adjustment

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  • Vu, D.H.
  • Muttaqi, K.M.
  • Agalgaonkar, A.P.
  • Bouzerdoum, A.

Abstract

This paper presents the development of an autoregressive based time varying (ARTV) model to forecast electricity demand in a short-term period. The ARTV model is developed based on an autoregressive model by allowing its coefficients to be updated at pre-set time intervals. The updated coefficients help to enhance the relationships between electricity demand and its own historical values, and accordingly improve the performance of the model. In addition, a representative data adjustment procedure including a similar-day-replacement technique and a data-shifting algorithm is proposed in this paper to cultivate the historical demand data. These techniques help cleanse the raw data by mitigating the abnormal data points when daylight saving and holiday occur. Consequently, the robustness of the model is significantly enhanced, and accordingly the overall forecasting accuracy of the model is considerably improved. A case study has been reported in this paper by acquiring the relevant data for the state of New South Wales, Australia. The results show that the proposed model outperforms conventional seasonal autoregressive and neural network models in short term electricity demand forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Vu, D.H. & Muttaqi, K.M. & Agalgaonkar, A.P. & Bouzerdoum, A., 2017. "Short-term electricity demand forecasting using autoregressive based time varying model incorporating representative data adjustment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 790-801.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:205:y:2017:i:c:p:790-801
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.08.135
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    3. Zang, Haixiang & Xu, Ruiqi & Cheng, Lilin & Ding, Tao & Liu, Ling & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang, 2021. "Residential load forecasting based on LSTM fusing self-attention mechanism with pooling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
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    5. Zhaorui Meng & Xianze Xu, 2019. "A Hybrid Short-Term Load Forecasting Framework with an Attention-Based Encoder–Decoder Network Based on Seasonal and Trend Adjustment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Angel Manuel Benitez Rodriguez & Ian Michael Trotter, 2019. "Climate change scenarios for Paraguayan power demand 2017–2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 425-445, October.
    7. Spiliotis, Evangelos & Petropoulos, Fotios & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2020. "Cross-temporal aggregation: Improving the forecast accuracy of hierarchical electricity consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    8. Ziras, Charalampos & Heinrich, Carsten & Pertl, Michael & Bindner, Henrik W., 2019. "Experimental flexibility identification of aggregated residential thermal loads using behind-the-meter data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1407-1421.
    9. Jonathan Berrisch & Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2022. "High-Resolution Peak Demand Estimation Using Generalized Additive Models and Deep Neural Networks," Papers 2203.03342, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    10. Paul Anton Verwiebe & Stephan Seim & Simon Burges & Lennart Schulz & Joachim Müller-Kirchenbauer, 2021. "Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-58, November.
    11. Hyojoo Son & Changwan Kim, 2020. "A Deep Learning Approach to Forecasting Monthly Demand for Residential–Sector Electricity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-16, April.
    12. Ye, Chengjin & Ding, Yi & Song, Yonghua & Lin, Zhenzhi & Wang, Lei, 2018. "A data driven multi-state model for distribution system flexible planning utilizing hierarchical parallel computing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 9-25.

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