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The Effect of Freight and Passenger Transportation and Energy Production on Economic Growth in the Framework of Macro-Economic Indicators: The Case of Kazakhstan

Author

Listed:
  • Zhanar Dyussembekova

    (Narxoz University, Almaty, Kazakhstan)

  • Aina B. Aidarova

    (Mukhtar Auezov South Kazakhstan University, Shymkent, Kazakhstan)

  • Elmira Balapanova

    (Abai Kazakh National Pedagogical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan)

  • Dilmina Kuatova

    (Narxoz University, Almaty, Kazakhstan)

  • Gaukhar Zh. Seitkhamzina

    (Almaty Humanitarian-Economic University, Almaty, Kazakhstan)

  • Artur Bolganbayev

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakhstan)

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of freight and passenger transport and energy production on the economic growth of Kazakhstan in the period 1996-2021 using the VAR model. The analysis also includes control variables such as energy production, economic growth, exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, foreign direct investment, and unemployment. The research uses data from the World Bank, the Central Bank of Kazakhstan, and the National Bureau of Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The findings showed that freight transportation's current and one-term lagged value affects economic growth. After determining the significance of the effect, we examined its causality. The findings concluded that none of the independent variables had a causal effect on economic growth, whereas the model with all three independent variables has. The study chose a long study interval and determined the data frequency as annual. The data period may be chosen as monthly or quarterly, and the effects of fluctuations during the year may be examined separately. As the timeline graph shows, the Covid-19 period created a significant statistical disruption for passenger transport. Future researchers may analyze this effect using the series from the pandemic period.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhanar Dyussembekova & Aina B. Aidarova & Elmira Balapanova & Dilmina Kuatova & Gaukhar Zh. Seitkhamzina & Artur Bolganbayev, 2023. "The Effect of Freight and Passenger Transportation and Energy Production on Economic Growth in the Framework of Macro-Economic Indicators: The Case of Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 74-80, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-06-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keating, John W., 1990. "Identifying VAR models under rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 453-476, June.
    2. Tazhikul Mashirova & Karlygash Tastanbekova & Murat Nurgabylov & Gulnar Lukhmanova & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy, 2023. "Analysis of the Relationship between the Highest Price and the Trading Volume of the Energy Company Shares in Kazakhstan with Frequency Domain Causality Method," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 22-27, July.
    3. Artur Bolganbayev & Baltaim Sabenova & Gulmira Mombekova & Gulnur Sultankhanova & Tazhibayeva Raikhan Musamatovna, 2022. "The Effect of Electricity Generation, Thermal Energy Production, Fixed Capital Investment, and Consumer Price Index on Economic Growth in Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 67-72, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kazakhstan; Freight and Passenger Transportation; Energy Production; Economic Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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