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Currency Bubbles Which Affect Fundamentals: A Qualitative Treatment

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  • Miller, Marcus H
  • Weller, Paul

Abstract

The authors analyze the effect of rational bubbles in the foreign exchange market, taking account of the interdependence between bubble paths and economic fundamentals. The risk of the bubble ending, modeled as a Poisson process, adds an insurance premium to the interest differential governing currency arbitrage. Qualitative solutions are obtained for the exchange rate when fundamentals evolve deterministically and also when "white noise" errors are introduced. Copyright 1990 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • Miller, Marcus H & Weller, Paul, 1990. "Currency Bubbles Which Affect Fundamentals: A Qualitative Treatment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 170-179, Supplemen.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:100:y:1990:i:400:p:170-79
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    Cited by:

    1. Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul, 1991. "Exchange Rate Bands with Price Inertia," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1380-1399, November.
    2. Bernd Kempa & Michael Nelles, 1999. "Sticky Prices and Alternative Monetary Feedback Rules: How Robust is the Overshooting Phenomenon?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18.
    3. Sutherland, Alan, 1996. "Intrinsic bubbles and mean-reverting fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 163-173, February.
    4. Patrick Artus & Claude Jessua, 1996. "La spéculation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(3), pages 409-424.
    5. Miksjuk Alexei, 2009. "Studying the Relation between the Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate in Belarus under the Speculative Motives Assumption," EERC Working Paper Series 09/07e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    6. Ikeda, Shinsuke & Shibata, Akihisa, 1995. "Fundamentals uncertainty, bubbles, and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 199-222, May.
    7. Posch, Olaf & Trimborn, Timo, 2013. "Numerical solution of dynamic equilibrium models under Poisson uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2602-2622.
    8. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Feijó Filho, Cypriano Lopes, 1994. "Bandas de cambio : teoria, evidencia empirica e sua possivel aplicação no Brasil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 234, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    9. Alessandra Pelloni, 1993. "Long-run consequences of finite exchange rate bubbles," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-26, March.
    10. Marcus Miller & Paul Weller & Lei Zhang, 2000. "Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: Has Mr. Greenspan Created a Bubble?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1902, Econometric Society.
    11. Marcus Miller & Ishita Mohanty & Lei Zhang, 2009. "The Illusion Of Stability—Low Inflation In A Bubble Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(s1), pages 126-149, September.
    12. Ho, Lok Sang, 2018. "In search of a unit of stable global purchasing power," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 99-108.
    13. Buch, Claudia M. & Heinrich, Ralph P. & Pierdzioch, Christian, 1999. "The Value of Waiting: Russia's Integration into the International Capital Markets," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 209-230, June.

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