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Results of a special survey of professional forecasters on the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy

Author

Listed:
  • Meyler, Aidan
  • Moreno, Marta Saez
  • Arioli, Rodolfo
  • Fischer, Franziska

Abstract

In the wake of the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy, a special survey was conducted among the panel of participants in the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The aim of the survey was to gain an insight into how the participants in the regular SPF survey have assessed the new strategy and into whether it has already had, or will have, an impact on their forecasts. Overall, respondents considered the new strategy to be an improvement, identifying the clearer inflation target (2%) and explicit commitment to symmetry as key elements. Regarding the impact on macroeconomic forecasts, around one-third of respondents indicated that they had revised their point longer-term inflation expectations, and a slightly larger portion indicated that they had revised (up) the balance of risks surrounding those expectations in response to the new strategy. The results of the survey suggest there is a strong correlation between what respondents viewed as key aspects in the new strategy and what they viewed as key improvements compared with the previous strategy. JEL Classification: E37, E52, E58, D84

Suggested Citation

  • Meyler, Aidan & Moreno, Marta Saez & Arioli, Rodolfo & Fischer, Franziska, 2021. "Results of a special survey of professional forecasters on the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 7.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2021:0007:8
    Note: 496790
    as

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    SPF; strategy review; survey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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