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A Structural Model For The Demand For Lease Renewals In The U.S. Leasing Industry

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  • GÓMEZ-SORZANO Gustavo A

Abstract

I estimate a theoretically and statistically satisfying model to account for the demand for lease renewals for one of the largest Real Estate Investment Trust companies (REIT) in the U.S. The variables that together account for ninety eight percent of the variation in the demand for lease renewals are, one-period time lag of the dependent variable (lease renewals), one period time lag of the Federal Funds interest rate end of month, the ratio between total non-farm employment and total construction permits authorized, the total non-farm employment, one period time lag of this REIT’S total concessions; the personal consumption expenditures – household operation, one period time lag of this REIT’S economic occupancy, one period time lag of this REIT’S net rental income, and this REIT apartment units occupied. The application of the model for out of the sample projections shows a forecasting accuracy of 99%.

Suggested Citation

  • GÓMEZ-SORZANO Gustavo A, 2006. "A Structural Model For The Demand For Lease Renewals In The U.S. Leasing Industry," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:6:y:2006:i:1_9
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    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/aeid619.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Puri, Anil K. & Van Lierop, Johannes, 1988. "Forecasting housing starts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 125-134.
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    Cited by:

    1. GOMEZ-SORZANO, Gustavo Alejandro, 2007. "A Structural Model For Net Rental Income In The U.S. Leasing Industry," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1), pages 67-80.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    REIT; demand for lease renewals;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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