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The Different Crowd Out Effects Of Tax Cut And Spending Deficits

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  • John J. HEIM

Abstract

Government deficits financed by domestic borrowing were found to crowd out private borrowing and spending by consumers and businesses, in both recession and non-recession periods. Deficits due to tax cuts had a net negative effect on GDP, because stimulus effects are smaller than the crowd out effects. Spending deficits had a zero net impact. This study provides first time econometric evidence that crowd out effects prevail during recessions, and that spending and tax cut deficits have different effects. International borrowing avoids the crowd out problem caused by national deficits by augmenting, rather than taking from, domestic saving.

Suggested Citation

  • John J. HEIM, 2012. "The Different Crowd Out Effects Of Tax Cut And Spending Deficits," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(2).
  • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:12:y:2012:i:2_8
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    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/aeid1228.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Crowding Out or Crowding In? Economic Consequences of Financing Government Deficits," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 593-641.
    2. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    3. William G. Gale & Peter R. Orszag, 2004. "Budget Deficits, National Saving, and Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 101-210.
    4. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    5. Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "The Impact of Government Spending on the Private Sector: Crowding-out versus Crowding-in Effects"," NIPE Working Papers 6/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Kun & Xu, Wenli, 2015. "中国政府消费支出对经济波动的传导机理分析 [Study on Influential Mechanism Between Government Expenditure of Consumption and Economic Fluctuation]," MPRA Paper 70994, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2015.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Investment; Deficits; Savings; Crowd Out Stimulus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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