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Fiscal stimulus: An overlapping generations analysis

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  • Ross Guest
  • Anthony J Makin

Abstract

Motivated by the revival of Keynesian-inspired fiscal activism in response to the global financial crisis of 2008-09, this paper analyses stylised simulations of fiscal stimulus using an overlapping generations model that allows for feedback effects of stimulus spending on intertemporal consumption decisions of households, via the tax rate, wages and the interest rate. Simulations vary according to the size and type of stimulus, and the speed and way in which the stimulus is unwound. The main qualitative result is that the short run output gains from fiscal stimulus are transitory - the fiscal multiplier turns negative and remains negative long after the stimulus ends, mainly because it must be reversed in some way. Also, the overlapping generations framework allows an intergenerational welfare analysis. Among the biggest winners from stimulus are those about to retire. The biggest losers are those near the start of their working lives when the stimulus is implemented.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number economics:201102.

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Date of creation: Feb 2011
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Handle: RePEc:gri:epaper:economics:201102

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Keywords: Fiscal stimulus; overlapping generations model; simulations; interngenerational welfare analysis;

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  1. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias J. & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2009. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/17, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  2. Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," Discussion Papers 0910-09, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  4. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
  5. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2008. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 14551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1994. "Public-Sector Capital and the Productivity Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 12-21, February.
  7. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions and Fiscal Stimulus," NBER Working Papers 15133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Lorenzo Forni & Libero Monteforte & Luca Sessa, 2007. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: estimates for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 652, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  9. Mariano Kulish & Kathryn Smith & Christopher Kent, 2006. "Ageing, Retirement and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  10. Paul R. Masson & Tamim Bayoumi & Hossein Samiei, 1995. "International Evidenceon the Determinants of Private Saving," IMF Working Papers 95/51, International Monetary Fund.
  11. William Coleman, 2010. "When Expansionary Fiscal Policy is Contractionary: A Neoklassikal Scenario," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(s1), pages 61-68, 09.
  12. Sven Jari Stehn & Daniel Leigh, 2009. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy During Downturns," IMF Working Papers 09/50, International Monetary Fund.
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