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Monetary Policy Rules Under Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence, Adaptive Learning, And Robust Control

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  • ZHANG, WENLANG
  • SEMMLER, WILLI

Abstract

We first explore empirical evidence of parameter and shock uncertainties in a state-space model with Markov switching. The evidence indicates that uncertainties in the U.S. economy have been too great to accurately define monetary policy rules. We then explore monetary policy rules under uncertainty with two approaches: the RLS learning algorithm and robust control. The former allows the parameters to be learned for a given model. Yet, as our results of the RLS learning in a framework of optimal control indicate, the state variables do not necessarily converge even in a nonstochastic model. The latter, by permitting uncertainty with respect to model misspecification, allows for a broader framework. Our study on robust control shows that robust optimal monetary policy rules reveal a stronger response to fluctuations in inflation and output than when no uncertainty exists, implying that uncertainty does not necessarily require caution.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 9 (2005)
Issue (Month): 05 (November)
Pages: 651-681

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Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:9:y:2005:i:05:p:651-681_04

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Cited by:
  1. Felipe Morandé Lavín & Mauricio Tejada, 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty for Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers wp285, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
  2. O. Gomes & V. M. Mendes & D. A. Mendes & J. Sousa Ramos, 2007. "Chaotic dynamics in optimal monetary policy," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 195-199, 05.
  3. Orlando Gomes & Diana A. Mendes & Vivaldo M. Mendes & José Sousa Ramos, 2006. "Endogenous Cycles in Optimal Monetary Policywith a Nonlinear Phillips Curve," Working Papers Series 1 ercwp1508, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
  4. Gonçalo Faria & João Correia-da-Silva, 2012. "The price of risk and ambiguity in an intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset prices," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 507-531, November.
  5. Willi Semmler & Mika Kato, 2005. "Dominant Firms, Barriers to Entry Capital and Entry Dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 194, Society for Computational Economics.

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