Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Chaotic Dynamics in Optimal Monetary Policy

Contents:

Author Info

  • Orlando Gomes
  • Vivaldo M. Mendes
  • Diana A. Mendes
  • J. Sousa Ramos

Abstract

There is by now a large consensus in modern monetary policy. This consensus has been built upon a dynamic general equilibrium model of optimal monetary policy as developed by, e.g., Goodfriend and King (1997), Clarida et al. (1999), Svensson (1999) and Woodford (2003). In this paper we extend the standard optimal monetary policy model by introducing nonlinearity into the Phillips curve. Under the specific form of nonlinearity proposed in our paper (which allows for convexity and concavity and secures closed form solutions), we show that the introduction of a nonlinear Phillips curve into the structure of the standard model in a discrete time and deterministic framework produces radical changes to the major conclusions regarding stability and the efficiency of monetary policy. We emphasize the following main results: (i) instead of a unique fixed point we end up with multiple equilibria; (ii) instead of saddle--path stability, for different sets of parameter values we may have saddle stability, totally unstable equilibria and chaotic attractors; (iii) for certain degrees of convexity and/or concavity of the Phillips curve, where endogenous fluctuations arise, one is able to encounter various results that seem intuitively correct. Firstly, when the Central Bank pays attention essentially to inflation targeting, the inflation rate has a lower mean and is less volatile; secondly, when the degree of price stickiness is high, the inflation rate displays a larger mean and higher volatility (but this is sensitive to the values given to the parameters of the model); and thirdly, the higher the target value of the output gap chosen by the Central Bank, the higher is the inflation rate and its volatility.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/nlin/0607064
File Function: Latest version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number nlin/0607064.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2006
Date of revision: Dec 2006
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:nlin/0607064

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://arxiv.org/

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Tambakis Demosthenes N., 1999. "Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve and Asymmetric Loss," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-17, January.
  2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
  3. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  4. Dolado, Juan J. & María-Dolores, Ramón & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2002. "Non-Linear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 3405, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Zhang, Wenlang & Semmler, Willi, 2005. "Monetary Policy Rules Under Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence, Adaptive Learning, And Robust Control," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(05), pages 651-681, November.
  6. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998. "The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy," Working Paper 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  7. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Eric Schaling, 1999. "The non-linear Phillips curve and inflation forecast targeting," Bank of England working papers 98, Bank of England.
  9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:nlin/0607064. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.