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Firm and Guarantor Risk, Risk Contagion, and the Interfirm Spread among Insured Deposits

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  • Cook, Douglas O.
  • Spellman, Lewis J.

Abstract

We develop a model of third party guaranteed debt and show that interest rate premiums are multiplicatively related to firm and guarantor risk. We apply the model to thrifts issuing CDs guaranteed by the FSLIC and then estimate firm probabilities of insolvency and guarantor risk across 20 observed months. This time period spans the insolvency of the guarantor followed by two recapitalizations. The relative stability in firm risk across time offers no evidence of generalized risk contagion among firms. We attribute elevated CD premiums and rate spreads to increases in guarantor risk rather than changes in firm risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Cook, Douglas O. & Spellman, Lewis J., 1996. "Firm and Guarantor Risk, Risk Contagion, and the Interfirm Spread among Insured Deposits," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 265-281, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:31:y:1996:i:02:p:265-281_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Molyneux, Philip & Upreti, Vineet & Zhou, Tim, 2023. "Depositor market discipline: New evidence from selling failed banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. McIntyre, M.L. & Tripe, David & Zhuang, Xiaojie (Jeff), 2009. "Testing for effective market supervision of New Zealand banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 25-34, January.
    3. Guo, Lin, 2003. "Inferring market information from the price and quantity of S&L deposits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2177-2202, November.
    4. Bartholdy, Jan & Boyle, Glenn W. & Stover, Roger D., 2003. "Deposit insurance and the risk premium in bank deposit rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 699-717, April.
    5. Guoxiang Xu & Wangfeng Gao, 2019. "Financial Risk Contagion in Stock Markets: Causality and Measurement Aspects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Shan, Yuan George & Wang, Yirui & Wu, Wuqing & Zhen, Weihao, 2023. "Does the Achilles heel of guarantee networks drive financial distress?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    7. Laleh Tafakori & Armin Pourkhanali & Riccardo Rastelli, 2022. "Measuring systemic risk and contagion in the European financial network," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 345-389, July.
    8. Fazelina Sahul Hamid, 2015. "Dynamic Depositor Discipline: Evidence Based on East Asian Banks," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(3), pages 218-253, August.
    9. Laeven, Luc, 2002. "Pricing of deposit insurance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2871, The World Bank.
    10. Krzysztof Jackowicz & Oskar Kowalewski & Łukasz Kozłowski, 2018. "Depositors Discipline through Interest Costs during Good and Bad Times: the Role of the Guarantor of Last Resort1," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 179-205, October.
    11. Philip Molyneux & Vineet Upreti & Tim Zhou, 2022. "Depositor Market Discipline: New Evidence from Selling Failed Banks," Working Papers 2022-03, Swansea University, School of Management.
    12. Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2004. "Macroeconomic shocks and banking supervision," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 93-110, September.
    13. Hendrickson, Jill M., 2000. "The impact of bank failures on local bank pricing decisions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 401-416.
    14. Wu, Kai & Jin, Zejun & Xu, Maobin, 2022. "Thirst for money: External guarantees and stock price crash risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

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