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The Multiplier for Federal Spending in the States During the Great Depression

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  • Fishback, Price
  • Kachanovskaya, Valentina

Abstract

To estimate the impact of federal spending on state incomes, we develop an annual panel data set between 1930 and 1940. Using panel methods we estimate that an added dollar of federal spending in the state increased state per capita income by between 40 and 96 cents. The point estimates for nonfarm grants are higher and for AAA farm grants are much smaller and negative in some cases. The spending led to increase in durable good spending on automobiles but had no positive effects on private employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Fishback, Price & Kachanovskaya, Valentina, 2015. "The Multiplier for Federal Spending in the States During the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 125-162, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:75:y:2015:i:01:p:125-162_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Joshua K. Hausman & Paul W. Rhode & Johannes F. Wieland, 2019. "Recovery from the Great Depression: The Farm Channel in Spring 1933," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(2), pages 427-472, February.
    2. Gianluca Pallante & Emanuele Russo & Andrea Roventini, 2020. "Does mission-oriented funding stimulate private R&D? Evidence from military R&D for US states," Working Papers hal-04097530, HAL.
    3. Kameda, Taisuke & Namba, Ryoichi & Tsuruga, Takayuki, 2021. "Decomposing local fiscal multipliers: Evidence from Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    4. Bellou, Andriana & Cardia, Emanuela, 2021. "The Great Depression and the rise of female employment: A new hypothesis," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Manuel Adelino & Igor Cunha & Miguel A. Ferreira, 2017. "The Economic Effects of Public Financing: Evidence from Municipal Bond Ratings Recalibration," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(9), pages 3223-3268.
    6. Amaral Haddad, Eduardo & Cotarelli, Natalia & Vale, Vinicius, 2018. "On the Numerical Structure of Local and Nationwide Government Spending Multipliers: What Can We Learn from the Greek Crisis?," TD NEREUS 2-2018, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    7. Gregori Galofré-Vilà & Martin McKee & David Stuckler, 2022. "Quantifying the mortality impact of the 1935 old-age assistance," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(1), pages 62-77.
    8. David M. Brasington & Marios Zachariadis, 2021. "Government spending and economic activity: Regression discontinuity evidence from voting on renewals of tax levies," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 06-2021, University of Cyprus Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2020.
    9. Jérémie Cohen‐Setton & Joshua K. Hausman & Johannes F. Wieland, 2017. "Supply‐Side Policies in the Depression: Evidence from France," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 273-317, March.
    10. David M. Brasington & Marios Zachariadis, 2022. "Fiscal policy and economic activity: New Causal Evidence," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 09-2022, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    11. Jia, Bijie, 2017. "A Second Thought on Estimating Expansionary Fiscal Policy Effects in the U.S," MPRA Paper 89264, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2018.
    12. Fuchs-Schündeln, N. & Hassan, T.A., 2016. "Natural Experiments in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 923-1012, Elsevier.
    13. Quincy, Sarah, 2022. "Income shocks and housing spillovers: Evidence from the World War I Veterans’ Bonus," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    14. Thomas Gemert & Lenard Lieb & Tania Treibich, 2022. "Local fiscal multipliers of different government spending categories," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2551-2575, November.
    15. Liu, Xing & Fishback, Price, 2019. "Effects of New Deal Spending and the downturns of the 1930s on private labor markets in 1939/1940," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 25-54.
    16. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2017. "Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Multipliers: What Have We Learned?," Working Paper 458091, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    17. Fishback, Price & Fleitas, Sebastian & Rose, Jonathan & Snowden, Ken, 2020. "Collateral Damage: The Impact of Foreclosures on New Home Mortgage Lending in the 1930s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(3), pages 853-885, September.
    18. Jia, Bijie, 2018. "Second Thoughts on Estimating Expansionary Fiscal Policy E ffects in the United States," MPRA Paper 90298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Pallante, Gianluca & Russo, Emanuele & Roventini, Andrea, 2023. "Does public R&D funding crowd-in private R&D investment? Evidence from military R&D expenditures for US states," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(8).
    20. Christopher Biolsi, 2019. "Local Effects of a Military Spending Shock: Evidence from Shipbuilding in the 1930s," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 227-248, April.

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