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Estimating Financial Integration in the Middle Ages: What Can We Learn from a TAR Model?

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  • VOLCKART, OLIVER
  • WOLF, NIKOLAUS

Abstract

We estimate a threshold autoregressive model to assess medieval financial integration. Our approach is based on the analysis of deviations between exchange rates and parity, which in a fully integrated market should not exceed bullion points. Hence, the time needed for adjustment, following a violation of the bullion points, is a measure of integration. We apply this approach to exchange between fourteenth- and fifteenth-century Flanders, L beck, and Prussia, results showing that whereas it took about eight months to reduce deviations between Flanders and L beck by 50 percent, those between Flanders and Prussia were roughly twice as persistent.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal The Journal of Economic History.

Volume (Year): 66 (2006)
Issue (Month): 01 (March)
Pages: 122-139

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Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:66:y:2006:i:01:p:122-139_00

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Cited by:
  1. Oliver Volckart, 2006. "The Influence of Information Costs on the Integration of Financial Markets: Northern Europe, 1350-1560," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-049, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  2. Lars Boerner & Battista Severgnini, 2012. "Epidemic Trade," Working Papers 0024, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
  3. Boerner, Lars & Volckart, Oliver, 2011. "The utility of a common coinage: Currency unions and the integration of money markets in late Medieval Central Europe," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 53-65, January.
  4. David Chilosi & Oliver Volckart, 2010. "Good or bad money?: debasement, society and the state in the late Middle Ages," Economic History Working Papers 27946, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
  5. Bernholz, Peter & Kugler, Peter, 2011. "Financial market integration in the early modern period in Spain: Results from a threshold error correction model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 93-96, February.
  6. David Chilosi & Oliver Volckart, 2009. "Money, states and empire: financial integration cycles and institutional change in Central Europe, 1400-1520," Economic History Working Papers 27884, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
  7. Jiøí Schwarz, 2011. "Impact of Institutions on Cross-Border Price Dispersion," Working Papers IES 2011/30, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2011.
  8. Oliver Volckart, 2007. "Rules, Discretion or Reputation? Monetary Policies and the Efficiency of Financial Markets in Germany, 14th to 16th Centuries," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-007, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

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