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Forming COVID-19 Policy Under Uncertainty

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  • Manski, Charles F.

Abstract

This paper presents my thinking and concerns about formation of COVID-19 policy. Policy formation must cope with substantial uncertainties about the nature of the disease, the dynamics of transmission, and behavioral responses. Data uncertainties limit our knowledge of the past trajectory and current state of the pandemic. Data and modeling uncertainties limit our ability to predict the impacts of alternative policies. I explain why current epidemiological and macroeconomic modeling cannot deliver realistically optimal policy. I describe my recent work quantifying basic data uncertainties that make policy analysis difficult. I discuss approaches for policy choice under uncertainty and suggest adaptive policy diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Manski, Charles F., 2020. "Forming COVID-19 Policy Under Uncertainty," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 341-356, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jbcoan:v:11:y:2020:i:3:p:341-356_1
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    Cited by:

    1. Loic BERGER & Nicolas BERGER & Valentina BOSETTI & Itzhak GILBOA & Lars Peter HANSEN & Christopher JARVIS & Massimo MARINACCI & Richard D. Smith, 2020. "Rational policymaking during a pandemic," Working Papers 2020-iRisk-01, IESEG School of Management.
    2. Coroneo, Laura & Iacone, Fabrizio & Paccagnini, Alessia & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2023. "Testing the predictive accuracy of COVID-19 forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 606-622.
    3. Muller, Seán M., 2021. "The dangers of performative scientism as the alternative to anti-scientific policymaking: A critical, preliminary assessment of South Africa’s Covid-19 response and its consequences," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Timothy Besley & Nicholas Stern, 2020. "The Economics of Lockdown," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 493-513, September.
    5. Jean Czerlinski Whitmore Ortega, 2022. "Learning with insufficient data: a multi-armed bandit perspective on covid-19 interventions," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 21(2), pages 183-193, November.
    6. Zhaohui Su, 2021. "Rigorous Policy-Making Amid COVID-19 and Beyond: Literature Review and Critical Insights," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-17, November.
    7. Rebecca Forman & Elias Mossialos, 2021. "The EU Response to COVID‐19: From Reactive Policies to Strategic Decision‐Making," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(S1), pages 56-68, September.
    8. Dimitris Zavras, 2021. "Feeling Uncertainty during the Lockdown That Commenced in March 2020 in Greece," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-10, May.
    9. Dimitris Zavras, 2021. "Studying Satisfaction with the Restriction Measures Implemented in Greece during the First COVID-19 Pandemic Wave," World, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-12, July.

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