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Mixed Signals: IMF Lending and Capital Markets

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  • Chapman, Terrence
  • Fang, Songying
  • Li, Xin
  • Stone, Randall W.

Abstract

The effect of new International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending announcements on capital markets depends on the lender’s political motivations. There are conditions under which lending reduces the risk of a deepening crisis and the risk premium demanded by market actors. Yet the political interests that make lenders willing to lend may weaken the credibility of commitments to reform, and the act of accepting an agreement reveals unfavorable information about the state of the borrower’s economy. The net ‘catalytic’ effect on the price of private borrowing depends on whether these effects dominate the beneficial effects of the liquidity the loan provides. Decomposing the contradictory effects of crisis lending provides an explanation for the discrepant empirical findings in the literature about market reactions. This study tests the implications of the theory by examining how sovereign bond yields are affected by IMF program announcements, loan size, the scope of conditions attached to loans and measures of the geopolitical interests of the United States, a key IMF principal.

Suggested Citation

  • Chapman, Terrence & Fang, Songying & Li, Xin & Stone, Randall W., 2017. "Mixed Signals: IMF Lending and Capital Markets," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 329-349, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:47:y:2017:i:02:p:329-349_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Krahnke, Tobias, 2020. "Doing more with less: The catalytic function of IMF lending and the role of program size," Discussion Papers 18/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Layna Mosley & Victoria Paniagua & Erik Wibbels, 2020. "Moving markets? Government bond investors and microeconomic policy changes," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 197-249, July.
    3. Thomas Stubbs & Bernhard Reinsberg & Alexander Kentikelenis & Lawrence King, 2020. "How to evaluate the effects of IMF conditionality," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 29-73, January.
    4. Stubbs, Thomas & Kring, William & Laskaridis, Christina & Kentikelenis, Alexander & Gallagher, Kevin, 2021. "Whatever it takes? The global financial safety net, Covid-19, and developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Chungshik Moon & Byungwon Woo, 2022. "Curse of friendship: IMF programme, friendship with the United States and foreign direct investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(7), pages 2188-2221, July.
    6. Tuomas Malinen & Olli Ropponen, 2022. "To default or not? The aftermath of sovereign defaults and IMF programs in economic crises," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(7), pages 2052-2083, July.
    7. Kern, Andreas & Nosrati, Elias & Reinsberg, Bernhard & Sevinc, Dilek, 2023. "Crash for cash: Offshore financial destinations and IMF programs," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Iasmin Goes, 2023. "Examining the effect of IMF conditionality on natural resource policy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 227-285, March.

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