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The Welfare State, Turnout, and the Economy: A Comparative Analysis

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  • Radcliff, Benjamin

Abstract

While the economic voting literature is voluminous, comparatively little attention has been paid to the question of how—or whether—the economy affects turnout. I address this issue by examining national elections in 29 countries. Using time series data, the initial findings are replicated by a case study of American presidential and midterm elections since 1896. It is argued that the effect of economic adversity depends upon the degree of welfare state development. This relationship is argued to be nonlinear, so that mobilization occurs at either extreme while withdrawal obtains in the middle range. The importance to democratic theory, the study of elections, and the politics of welfare policy are discussed.

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  • Radcliff, Benjamin, 1992. "The Welfare State, Turnout, and the Economy: A Comparative Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 444-454, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:86:y:1992:i:02:p:444-454_08
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard J. Cebula & Gigi M. Alexander, 2017. "Female Labor Force Participation and Voter Turnout: Evidence from the American Presidential Elections," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 8(2).
    2. Vjollca Sadiraj & Jan Tuinstra & Frans Winden, 2005. "Interest group size dynamics and policymaking," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 271-303, December.
    3. Tony Caporale & Marc Poitras, 2014. "Voter turnout in US presidential elections: does Carville’s law explain the time series?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(29), pages 3630-3638, October.
    4. Nadia Fiorino & Nicola Pontarollo & Roberto Ricciuti, 2021. "Spatial links in the analysis of voter turnout in European Parliamentary elections," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 65-78, April.
    5. Lakomaa, Erik & Korpi, Martin, 2014. "Working paper No. 240 Bloc – party Politics and Economic Outcomes. What Are the Effects of Local Parties?," Ratio Working Papers 240, The Ratio Institute.
    6. Nadia Fiorino & Nicola Pontarollo & Roberto Ricciuti, 2016. "Voter Turnout in European Parliament Elections: A Spatial Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 5910, CESifo.
    7. Özge Kama & Tolga Aksoy & Hüseyin Taştan, 2022. "Economic Adversity and Voter Turnout: Evidence from Turkish Parliamentary Elections," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 799-821, September.
    8. François Facchini & Louis Jaeck, 2019. "Ideology and the rationality of non-voting," Rationality and Society, , vol. 31(3), pages 265-286, August.
    9. Alan D. Crane & Andrew Koch & Leming Lin, 2024. "Real Effects of Markets on Politics: Evidence from US Presidential Elections," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 73-88, March.
    10. Rodrigo Martins & Francisco José Veiga, 2012. "Turnout and the modeling of economic conditions: Evidence from Portuguese elections," NIPE Working Papers 01/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    11. Zhang, Aihua, 2018. "New Findings on Key Factors Influencing the UK’s Referendum on Leaving the EU," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 304-314.
    12. Adalbert Abraham Ghislain Melingui Bate, 2020. "The effect of education on voter's turnout in african presidential elections," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1607-1622.
    13. Daniel T. Haile, 2005. "Wealth Distribution, Lobbying and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2005-21, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Rodrigo Martins & Francisco Veiga, 2013. "Economic performance and turnout at national and local elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 429-448, December.
    15. Cebula, Richard J., 2019. "The Voter Turnout/Relative Unemployment Rate Hypothesis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 72(3), pages 255-280.
    16. Kellermann, Kim Leonie, 2017. "Political participation and party capture in a dualized economy: A game theory approach," CIW Discussion Papers 4/2017, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    17. Enrico Cantoni & Vincent Pons, 2021. "Do interactions with candidates increase voter support and participation? Experimental evidence from Italy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 379-402, July.
    18. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Melvin Stephens Jr., 2013. "Employment, Wages, and Voter Turnout," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 111-143, October.
    19. David Jesuit, 2003. "The Regional Dynamics of European Electoral Politics," European Union Politics, , vol. 4(2), pages 139-164, June.
    20. Schaub, Max, 2021. "Acute Financial Hardship and Voter Turnout: Theory and Evidence from the Sequence of Bank Working Days," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 115(4), pages 1258-1274.

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