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Can the Global Forest Sector Survive 11 °C Warming?

Author

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  • Favero, Alice
  • Mendelsohn, Robert
  • Sohngen, Brent

Abstract

Although most global forest economic studies have found that warming is likely to increase forest supply, these studies have examined only the limited warming expected through 2100. This study extends the analysis out to 2250 to test much higher levels of warming to examine very long term effects. Future warming is predicted to steadily increase forest productivity, with global timber supply predicted to increase through 2250, even with warming up to 11 °C warming. However, natural forestland and biomass will shrink. This result suggests far future forests will not be able to hold the same stock of carbon they hold today.

Suggested Citation

  • Favero, Alice & Mendelsohn, Robert & Sohngen, Brent, 2018. "Can the Global Forest Sector Survive 11 °C Warming?," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 388-413, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:agrerw:v:47:y:2018:i:02:p:388-413_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Riviere & Sylvain Caurla & Philippe Delacote, 2020. "Evolving Integrated Models From Narrower Economic Tools : the Example of Forest Sector Models," Post-Print hal-02512330, HAL.
    2. Daigneault, Adam & Favero, Alice, 2021. "Global forest management, carbon sequestration and bioenergy supply under alternative shared socioeconomic pathways," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Daigneault, Adam J. & Baker, Justin S. & Favero, Alice, 2020. "A forest model inter-comparison project (For-MIP) to assess the future of forests under climate, policy and technological stressors," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304585, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Favero, Alice & Sohngen, Brent & Hamilton, W. Parker, 2022. "Climate change and timber in Latin America: Will the forestry sector flourish under climate change?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Baker, Justin S. & Van Houtven, George & Phelan, Jennifer & Latta, Gregory & Clark, Christopher M. & Austin, Kemen G. & Sodiya, Olakunle E. & Ohrel, Sara B. & Buckley, John & Gentile, Lauren E. & Mart, 2023. "Projecting U.S. forest management, market, and carbon sequestration responses to a high-impact climate scenario," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry

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