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Relación entre la demanda de transporte y el crecimiento económico: Análisis dinámico mediante el uso del modelo ARDL

Author

Listed:
  • Alex Flores

    (Economista por la Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima. Perú)

  • Víctor Chang

    (PhD en Economía por la Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria y Docente Investigador de la Universidad Ricardo Palma. Lima. Perú)

Abstract

el objetivo del presente artículo es analizar la relación y medir el impacto entre la demanda de transporte y el crecimiento económico en Perú. Para ello se aplica el procedi-miento desarrollado por Toda y Yamamoto para la prueba de no causalidad de granger seguido de la estimación de un Modelo autorregresivo de Rezago distribuido (aRdl). los resultados muestran que en la mayoría de los casos es el crecimiento económico el que impulsa la deman-da de transporte, con excepción en la demanda aeroportuaria donde se encontró una relación de causalidad bidireccional. de esta manera, ante un incremento de 1% en el Producto interno bruto (Pib) la demanda de carga aeroportuaria se incrementa en un 0,728%, la demanda de pasajeros aeroportuarios en un 2,536%, los de kilómetros pavimentados de carreteras en un 1,324%, la demanda de pasajeros ferroviarios en un 0,571% y la demanda de carga portuaria en un 1,243%. Por otra parte, ante un incremento de 1% en la demanda aeroportuaria de carga el Pib se incrementa en un 0,778%; mientras que ante un incremento de 1% en la demanda de pasajeros el Pib se incrementa en un 0,334%.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Flores & Víctor Chang, 2020. "Relación entre la demanda de transporte y el crecimiento económico: Análisis dinámico mediante el uso del modelo ARDL," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 43(122), pages 145-163, Mayo.
    • Handle: RePEc:cud:journl:v:43:y:2020:i:122:p:145-163
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    Cited by:

    1. Chau, Ka Yin & Moslehpour, Massoud & Tu, Yu-Te & Tai, Nguyen Tan & Tien, Nguyen Hoang & Huy, Pham Quang, 2022. "Exploring the impact of green energy and consumption on the sustainability of natural resources: Empirical evidence from G7 countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 1241-1249.
    2. Chang, Chiu-Lan & Fang, Ming, 2022. "The connectedness between natural resource commodities and stock market indices: Evidence from the Chinese economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Chien, FengSheng & Chau, Ka Yin & Sadiq, Muhammad & Hsu, Ching-Chi, 2022. "The impact of economic and non-economic determinants on the natural resources commodity prices volatility in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Wei, Zhao & Huang, Lihua, 2022. "Does renewable energy matter to achieve sustainable development? Fresh evidence from ten Asian economies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 759-767.
    5. Zhang, YunQian, 2022. "Influence of stock market factors on the natural resources dependence for environmental change: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demanda de transporte; Crecimiento económico; Prueba de límites; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development

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