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Short-term and seasonal time series models for online marketing campaigns

Author

Listed:
  • Mária Bohdalová

    (Comenius University Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovak Republic)

  • Miriama Křížková

    (Comenius University Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovak Republic)

Abstract

Marketing companies use the market response to price products, determine advertising expenditures, forecast sales or prepare and test the effectiveness of various marketing plans and campaigns. Predictions of future traffic for online marketing campaigns can be based on data analysis and market response models. Mathematical models have become the main tools for marketing decision-making. The main goal of this paper is to describe and show how to use behavioral modelling of potential customers in online marketing campaigns. In addition to the basic ARMA model for short-term website traffic forecasting, we evaluate the TBATS and Prophet models. Both models comprehensively capture seasonal and holiday fluctuations. More specifically we show how time series modelling can be incorporated into the evaluation of online marketing campaign traffic forecasts for marketing agency clients.

Suggested Citation

  • Mária Bohdalová & Miriama Křížková, 2023. "Short-term and seasonal time series models for online marketing campaigns," Marketing Science & Inspirations, Comenius University in Bratislava, Faculty of Management, vol. 18(1), pages 16-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:cub:journm:v:18:y:2023:i:1:p:16-26
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARMA model; Prophet model; seasonality; holidays; online marketing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing
    • M37 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Advertising

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