IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000438/013524.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Una evaluación distinta de la situación fiscal colombiana

Author

Listed:
  • Santiago Herrera

Abstract

“En el trabajo "Una evaluación de la situación fiscal colombiana", publicado en la Coyuntura Económica de junio, José Antonio Ocampo examina el tema de si el déficit fiscal es excesivo o no. El documento es una valiosa contribución al debate económico del país, ya que es el único trabajo de carácter técnico, de público acceso, que se conoce como sustento de los actuales lineamientos de la política fiscal en Colombia. En este sentido, el autor merece un reconocimiento al plasmar, en blanco y negro, su interpretación de lo que es un manejo realista y coherente de las finanzas del Estado. En términos generales, el documento es intensivo en información, presentando tal vez demasiadas cifras, pero ello obedece a la cantidad de temas que buscaba abarcar. Por la misma razón, falta profundidad y sustentación en algunas argumentaciones y en varias secciones se emplean metodologías que no coinciden con las prácticas internacionales ni con las de otros documentos ya efectuados en Colombia, por lo que necesitarían una mayor discusión. Todo lo anterior hace que el trabajo sea confuso, aunque el hilo conductor emerge claramente en la conclusión y es que "...el ajuste fiscal deberá ser gradual...", debido a supuestas rigideces existentes en el manejo de recursos y al temor de que una política fiscal austera acentúe la coyuntura recesiva. Según Ocampo no hay necesidad de actuar rápida y drásticamente, ya que "...los bajos niveles de endeudamiento representan una fortaleza de la situación fiscal en Colombia y ofrecen un margen de maniobra mientras se llevan a cabo las reformas estructurales necesarias". En estas notas se mostrará cómo las limitaciones en el manejo de recursos senaladas por Ocampo no son operantes. En segundo término se expondrán los argumentos, con su respectiva evidencia, de cómo la política fiscal austera puede llevar a la expansión del producto, desvirtuando la preocupación de que con un ajuste fiscal se acentúe la recesión. Finalmente se comentarán algunos aspectos metodológicos y contradicciones de este documento con otros que tratan temas similares.”

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago Herrera, 1997. "Una evaluación distinta de la situación fiscal colombiana," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013524
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/2169
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," NBER Working Papers 5332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1981. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1086-1121, December.
    3. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    5. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-I-Martin, 1992. "Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(4), pages 645-661.
    6. Santiago Herrera, 1997. "El tipo de cambio real y la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos de largo plazo en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, March.
    7. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    8. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-227, June.
    9. Roubini, Nouriel & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Financial repression and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 5-30, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leonardo Villar & Hernán Rincón, 2000. "The Colombian Economy in the nineties: Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Regimes," Borradores de Economia 149, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roubini, Nouriel & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "A growth model of inflation, tax evasion, and financial repression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 275-301, April.
    2. De Gregorio, Jose, 1993. "Inflation, taxation, and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 271-298, June.
    3. Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2003. "The Trade-Off between Growth & Equality and the Economic Impact of Alternative Fiscal Adjustment Strategies in the EU," European Economy Group Working Papers 20, European Economy Group.
    4. Schreiner, Lena & Madlener, Reinhard, 2022. "Investing in power grid infrastructure as a flexibility option: A DSGE assessment for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    5. Shin-Chyang Lee & Shang-Fen Wu & Cheng-Te Lee, 2017. "Government Size and Stochastic Growth," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 219-227, September.
    6. ZAREEN, SHUMAILA & Qayyum, Abdul, 2014. "An Analysis of the Impact of Government Size on Economic Growth of Pakistan: An Endogenous Growth," MPRA Paper 85426, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    7. Turnovsky, S., 2000. "Growth in an Open Economy: some Recent Developments," Papers 5, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    8. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    9. Martin Victor & Vazquez Guillermo, 2015. "Club convergence in Latin America," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 791-820, July.
    10. J. Rodrigo Fuentes S. & Verónica Mies M., 2005. "Looking at Chile’s Economic Dvelopment From an International Perspective," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 8(1), pages 7-33, April.
    11. Alberto Alesina & Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 465-490.
    12. Stephen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 2003. "The Relationship Between Large Fiscal Adjustments And Short‐Term Output Growth Under Alternative Fiscal Policy Regimes," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(1), pages 41-58, January.
    13. Elham Mohammad Alhaj Yousef, 2022. "The Long-Run Relationship between Disaggregated Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Jordan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 1-9, September.
    14. Pula Lekë & Elshani Alban, 2018. "Role of Public Expenditure in Economic Growth: Econometric Evidence from Kosovo 2002–2015," Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management, Sciendo, vol. 6(1), pages 74-87, June.
    15. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti, 1998. "Inflationary financing of public investment and economic growth," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 322, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    16. Themba G Chirwa & NM Odhiambo, 2019. "An Empirical Test Of Exogenous Growth Models: Evidence From Three Southern African Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(220), pages 7-38, January –.
    17. Joanna Stawska & Katarzyna Miszczyńska, 2022. "The impact of monetary and fiscal policy variables on the EU economic growth. Panel data analysis," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 9(4), pages 380-395, June.
    18. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & César Calderón, 2005. "Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean : Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7315, December.
    19. Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter, 2015. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the European Union," Working Papers 2015.06, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    20. Muinelo-Gallo, Leonel & Roca-Sagalés, Oriol, 2013. "Joint determinants of fiscal policy, income inequality and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 814-824.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Finanzas Públicas; Déficit Fiscal; Sector Público; Política Fiscal; Crisis Fiscal; Transferencias Territoriales; Subsidios; Presupuesto Nacional; Gasto Público; Ajuste Fiscal; Comentarios; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000438:013524. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Patricia Monroy (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fedesco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.