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Estimación de la migración de votantes y ubicación de coaliciones políticas usando máxima entropía generalizada. Evidencia en Chile (2001-2013)

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  • Ricardo Troncoso Sepúlveda
  • Claudio Parés Bengoechea

Abstract

El objetivo de este artículo es estimar los patrones de migración de votantes y la ubicación de coaliciones en un espacio político bidimensional, en el marco de las elecciones parlamentarias en Chile entre el 2001 y el 2013. Para tal propósito, se utiliza el método de máxima entropía generalizada que permite estimar patrones de migración de votos desde datos electorales agregados. Los resultados muestran altas tasas de volatilidad de votantes en las coaliciones, dejan en evidencia el rol de los “no votantes” y senalan cierta coherencia en la ubicación de las coaliciones políticas de un período electoral a otro. The aim of this paper is to estimate voter migration patterns and the location of coalitions in a two-dimensional policy space within the framework of the Chilean parliamentary elections between 2001-2013. To do this, we use the generalized maximum entropy method, which allows us to estimate migration patterns from aggregated election data. Results show that there is high voter volatility, turnout plays a role, and there is some consistency in where coalitions are located from one election period to another.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Troncoso Sepúlveda & Claudio Parés Bengoechea, 2018. "Estimación de la migración de votantes y ubicación de coaliciones políticas usando máxima entropía generalizada. Evidencia en Chile (2001-2013)," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 37(74), pages 495-522, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000093:016985
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    D72; D79; D70; C01;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D79 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Other
    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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