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The Paris Agreement: Destined to Succeed or Doomed to Fail?

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  • Oran R. Young

    (Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, USA)

Abstract

Is the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change destined to succeed or doomed to fail? If all the pledges embedded in the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) are implemented fully, temperatures at the Earth’s surface are predicted to rise by 3–4 °C, far above the agreement’s goal of limiting increases to 1.5 °C. This means that the fate of the agreement will be determined by the success of efforts to strengthen or ratchet up the commitments contained in the national pledges over time. The first substantive section of this essay provides a general account of mechanisms for ratcheting up commitments and conditions determining the use of these mechanisms in international environmental agreements. The second section applies this analysis to the specific case of the Paris Agreement. The conclusion is mixed. There are plenty of reasons to doubt whether the Paris Agreement will succeed in moving from strength to strength in a fashion resembling experience with the Montreal Protocol on ozone depleting substances. Nevertheless, there is more room for hope in this regard than those who see the climate problem as unusually malign, wicked, or even diabolical are willing to acknowledge.

Suggested Citation

  • Oran R. Young, 2016. "The Paris Agreement: Destined to Succeed or Doomed to Fail?," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 124-132.
    • Handle: RePEc:cog:poango:v:4:y:2016:i:3:p:124-132
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Young, Oran R., 1991. "Political leadership and regime formation: on the development of institutions in international society," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 281-308, July.
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    1. Jon Hovi & Tora Skodvin, 2016. "Editorial to the Issue on Climate Governance and the Paris Agreement," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 111-114.
    2. Torres-Brito, David Israel & Cruz-Aké, Salvador & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2023. "Impacto de los contaminantes por gases de efecto invernadero en el crecimiento económico en 86 países (1990-2019): Sobre la curva inversa de Kuznets [Impact of the Effect of Greenhouse Gas Pollutan," MPRA Paper 119031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Gallier, Carlo & Sturm, Bodo, 2021. "The ratchet effect in social dilemmas," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 251-268.
    4. Gallier, Carlo & Sturm, Bodo, 2020. "The ratchet effect in social dilemmas," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-015, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Jose Rafael Núñez Collado & Han-Hsiang Wang & Tsung-Yi Tsai, 2019. "Urban Informality in the Paris Climate Agreement: Content Analysis of the Nationally Determined Contributions of Highly Urbanized Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-17, September.

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