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Modelling the oil price –exchange rate nexus for South Africa

Author

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  • Babajide Fowowe

Abstract

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates in South Africa. We model the volatility and jumps in exchange rate returns by using the GARCH autoregressive conditional jump intensity model of Chan and Maheu which models the effects of extreme news events (jumps) in returns. The empirical results show that oil price increases lead to a depreciation of the South African rand relative to the US dollar. This finding suggests that oil price increases have led to a transfer of wealth from South Africa to the OPEC countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Babajide Fowowe, 2014. "Modelling the oil price –exchange rate nexus for South Africa," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 140, pages 36-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2014-q4-140-3
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701714000353
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Benzid, Lamia & Bakari, Sayef, 2021. "Modeling the Asymmetric Relationship between the Covid-19 and the U.S Dollar Exchange Rate: an Empirical Analysis via the NARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 105566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jiang, Jiaqi & Gu, Rongbao, 2016. "Asymmetrical long-run dependence between oil price and US dollar exchange rate—Based on structural oil shocks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 75-89.
    3. Fatemeh Razmi & Azali Mohamed & Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2017. "How Does Monetary Policy Affect Economic Vulnerability to Oil Price Shock as against US Economy Shock?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 544-550.
    4. Razmi, Fatemeh & Azali, M. & Chin, Lee & Shah Habibullah, Muzafar, 2016. "The role of monetary transmission channels in transmitting oil price shocks to prices in ASEAN-4 countries during pre- and post-global financial crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 581-591.
    5. Motunrayo O AKINSOLA & NM ODHIAMBO, 2020. "Oil Price And Economic Growth Of Oil-Importing Countries: A Review Of International Literature," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(1), pages 129-140.
    6. Khraief, Naceur & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Bhattacharya, Mita, 2021. "Movements of oil prices and exchange rates in China and India: New evidence from wavelet-based, non-linear, autoregressive distributed lag estimations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 563(C).
    7. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Fan, Ying, 2019. "Risk dependence of CoVaR and structural change between oil prices and exchange rates: A time-varying copula model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 80-92.
    8. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Lucey, Brian, 2020. "How do dynamic responses of exchange rates to oil price shocks co-move? From a time-varying perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Oil price; Jumps; GARCH; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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