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Keynes’s methodology and the analysis of economic agent behavior in a complex world

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Arena
  • Eric Nasica

Abstract

This article aims to analyze the impact of taking into account a truly uncertain and complex economic environment on the methodology used by Keynes. Our work leads to two main results. The first conclusion is that, even when an ordinal or cardinal measure of probability is impossible, Keynes provides a coherent set of tools for the analysis of economic decisions. In particular, even if a numerical probability cannot be determined, the choices of economic agents will be rationally governed by reasoning based on their limited but real knowledge of the observed reality and on non-numerical probabilities. The second result obtained is that the complex decision-making environment surrounding economic decisions influences the characterization of the individual actor himself and economic and social interactions; this form of economic analysis implies referring to a methodological conception which is open to and even requires the use of philosophy and other social sciences as cognitive psychology, social psychology and even anthropology. JEL codes: B21, B22, B31, B41, D81, D84, D91, E12, E71

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Arena & Eric Nasica, 2021. "Keynes’s methodology and the analysis of economic agent behavior in a complex world," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 131(3), pages 371-402.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:repdal:redp_313_0053
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Zappia, 2021. "Keynes's Treatise on Probability at 100 Years: Its Most Enduring Message," GREDEG Working Papers 2021-36, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Keynes’s methodology; Uncertainty; Complexity; Rationality; Logical probability; Treatise on Probability; Economic agent behavior; Philosophy; Psychology; Méthodologie de Keynes; Incertitude; Complexité; Rationalité; Probabilité logique; Traité des Probabilités; Comportement de l’agent économique; Philosophie; Psychologie;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B21 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Microeconomics
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • B31 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - Individuals
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

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