Politique budgétaire et taux d'intérêt

Increases in public debt and deficits since the seventies are accused of having contributed to the increase of interest rates level. According to this view, fiscal policies have induced inflation pressures that have forced central banks to raise the short-term interest rate; expectations of these policies by financial markets have entailed a rise in long-term interest rates and crowding-out effects. Theoretically, the impact of fiscal policy depends on the economic situation, on the adequacy of economic policy, and on agents? expectations. The introduction of fiscal policy variables in short and long-term interest rate equations for the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and Japan for the 1980-2003 period shows that role of fiscal policies on interest rates is not mechanical and vary from one country to another. On balance, fiscal policies have not induced a generalized increase in real interest rates over that period. JEL codes : E44, E52, E6.