Un modèle multi-agent du marché du travail français, outil d’évaluation des politiques de l’emploi : l’exemple du contrat de génération

This article presents an agent-based model of the French labor market and uses it for ex ante simulations of the effects of the ?Generation Contract.? The model simulates the decisions and interactions of individuals and firms (10,000 agents in our simulations) which take place in a duly specified economic and legal environment. The decisions consist for firms in creating or suppressing jobs of two types, Fixed Duration Contracts, and Open Ended Contracts, as well as hiring, promoting, and laying off their employees. The individuals apply for jobs, and can quit. The interactions induce gross flows between the states of employed, unemployed, and inactive, flows which generate complete stock-flow accounts. A calibration algorithm enables us to reproduce the main caracteristics of the French labor market in 2011, which is strongly structured by the coexistence of Fixed Duration Contracts, and Open Ended Contracts. As simulated by the model, the Generation Contract is expected to lower youth unemployment, but the effect is small due to very important windfall effects as well as moderate crowding out effects. The trajectories of the youths who have benefited from the Generation Contract show a positive effect on their employment rate in the long run. Variants show that it is not easy to improve the policy scheme. Classification JEL : C63, J63, J64, J65, J68, K31.