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An Explanation of Optimal Each-Way Bets based on Non-Expected Utility Theory

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Author Info

  • David A. Peel
  • Davind Law

Abstract

The purpose in this paper is to demonstrate how the non-expected utility models of Markowitz and Kahneman and Tversky can explain why an agent, chooses to bet each way on a horse. We also show that that appeal to moments of return, such as a preference for skewness of return, ceteris paribus, to explain the choice of the each way gamble over the single win gamble is, in general, invalid.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Buckingham Press in its journal Journal of Gambling Business and Economics.

Volume (Year): 3 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
Pages: 15-35

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Handle: RePEc:buc:jgbeco:v:3:y:2009:i:2:p:15-35

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Related research

Keywords: MARKOWITZ UTILITY FUNCTION; CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY; EXPO-VALUE UTILITY FUNCTION; PROBABILITY DISTORTION; GAMBLING;

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References

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  1. Glenn Harrison & John List & Charles Towe, 2004. "Naturally occurring preferences and exogenous laboratory experiments: A case study of risk aversion," Framed Field Experiments 00155, The Field Experiments Website.
  2. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
  3. Battalio, Raymond C & Kagel, John H & Jiranyakul, Komain, 1990. " Testing between Alternative Models of Choice under Uncertainty: Some Initial Results," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 25-50, March.
  4. Chamberlain, Gary, 1983. "A characterization of the distributions that imply mean--Variance utility functions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 185-201, February.
  5. Kobberling, Veronika & Wakker, Peter P., 2005. "An index of loss aversion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 119-131, May.
  6. repec:feb:framed:0074 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Ali, Mukhtar M, 1977. "Probability and Utility Estimates for Racetrack Bettors," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(4), pages 803-15, August.
  8. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "The Utility of Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60, pages 151.
  9. David Peel & David Law & Michael Cain, 2000. "Product bundling and a rule of thumb versus the Harville formulae: can each way bets with UK bookmakers generate abnormal returns," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1737-1744.
  10. Matthew Rabin, 2001. "Risk Aversion and Expected Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7667, David K. Levine.
  11. Meyer, Jack, 1987. "Two-moment Decision Models and Expected Utility Maximization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 421-30, June.
  12. Hans Binswanger, 1980. "Attitudes toward risk: Experimental measurement in rural india," Artefactual Field Experiments 00009, The Field Experiments Website.
  13. D. Law & D. A. Peel, 2009. "Skewness as an explanation of gambling in cumulative prospect theory," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 685-689.
  14. Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 1999. "Information Efficiency in Betting Markets: A Survey," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 1-30, January.
  15. Drazen Prelec, 1998. "The Probability Weighting Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 497-528, May.
  16. Michael Cain & David Law & David Peel, 2008. "Bounded cumulative prospect theory: some implications for gambling outcomes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 5-15.
  17. Chris Starmer, 2000. "Developments in Non-expected Utility Theory: The Hunt for a Descriptive Theory of Choice under Risk," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 332-382, June.
  18. Hartog, Joop & Ferrer-i-Carbonell, Ada & Jonker, Nicole, 2002. "Linking Measured Risk Aversion to Individual Characteristics," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 3-26.
  19. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279.
  20. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  21. Conlisk, John, 1993. " The Utility of Gambling," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 255-75, June.
  22. Farrell, Lisa & Walker, Ian, 1999. "The welfare effects of lotto: evidence from the UK," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 99-120, April.
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