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Consistency and Pythagoras

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  • Braunstein Alexander

    (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

Pythagorean win share has been one of the fundamental contributions to Sabermetrics. Several hundred articles, both academic and non-academic, have explored variations on Bill James' original formula and its fit to empirical data. This paper considers a variation that is previously unexplored on any systematic level, consistency. After discussing several important contributions to the line of literature, we demonstrate the strong correlation between Pythagorean residuals and several notions of run distribution consistency. Finally, we select the "correct" form of consistency and use it to construct a simple regression estimator, which improves RMSE by 11%.

Suggested Citation

  • Braunstein Alexander, 2010. "Consistency and Pythagoras," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-16, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:6:y:2010:i:1:n:8
    DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1215
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kubatko Justin & Oliver Dean & Pelton Kevin & Rosenbaum Dan T, 2007. "A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-24, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kovalchik Stephanie Ann, 2016. "Is there a Pythagorean theorem for winning in tennis?," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 43-49, March.
    2. Kaplan Edward H. & Rich Candler, 2017. "Decomposing Pythagoras," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 13(4), pages 141-149, December.

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