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Stochastic model of the 2012 PGA Tour season

Author

Listed:
  • Heiny Erik L.

    (Utah Valley University, Department of Mathematics, 800 W University Parkway, Orem, UT 84058, USA)

  • Heiny Robert Lowell

    (University of Northern Colorado, School of Mathematical Sciences, 501 20th St., Greeley, CO 80639, USA)

Abstract

An absorbing Markov chain was used to model the 2012 PGA Tour Golf Season. Expected number of steps until absorption was used to establish expected scores for different locations (fairway, primary rough, green, etc.) and distances from the hole. Strokes gained analysis was then performed to evaluate the quality of each shot hit by players on the 2012 PGA Tour. Skill rankings were developed, tradeoffs between distance and accuracy were assessed, and player strategy was analyzed for playing par 5s.

Suggested Citation

  • Heiny Erik L. & Heiny Robert Lowell, 2014. "Stochastic model of the 2012 PGA Tour season," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:10:y:2014:i:4:p:13:n:4
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2014-0043
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Newton Paul K & Aslam Kamran, 2009. "Monte Carlo Tennis: A Stochastic Markov Chain Model," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-44, July.
    2. Goldner Keith, 2012. "A Markov Model of Football: Using Stochastic Processes to Model a Football Drive," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18, March.
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