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Life on the bubble: Who’s in and who’s out of March Madness?

Author

Listed:
  • Leman Scotland C.
  • House Leanna
  • Szarka John
  • Nelson Hayley

    (Virginia Tech – Statisitics, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA)

Abstract

Yearly, the top National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), Division I, men’s basketball teams compete for the national championship, in what is commonly referred to as “March Madness.” Teams are eligible for the tournament when they either win their conference tournament or are invited by a NCAA selection committee. Various factors influence the committee’s decision. Of primary importance is the perceived strength of a team; however, the possible measures used to assess a team’s strength can vary widely. These metrics are of particular interest for teams on the borderline or “on the bubble” of tournament inclusion. Using historical data, we assess which metrics play the most substantial roles in predicting tournament inclusion. Additionally, we determine guidelines for constructing a team’s schedule that are based on these metrics to enhance the chance of being selected for the tournament.

Suggested Citation

  • Leman Scotland C. & House Leanna & Szarka John & Nelson Hayley, 2014. "Life on the bubble: Who’s in and who’s out of March Madness?," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:10:y:2014:i:3:p:14:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0080
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brown Mark & Sokol Joel, 2010. "An Improved LRMC Method for NCAA Basketball Prediction," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-23, July.
    2. Harville D.A., 2003. "The Selection or Seeding of College Basketball or Football Teams for Postseason Competition," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 17-27, January.
    3. Cassey Lee, 2007. "A Cheap Ticket to the Dance: Systematic Bias in College Basketball's Ratings Percentage Index," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 4(34), pages 1-7.
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