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Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games

Author

Listed:
  • H.O. Stekler

    (George Washington University)

  • Andrew Klein

    (George Washington University)

Abstract

This paper uses the difference in seeding ranks to predict the outcome of March Madness games. It updates the Boulier-Stekler method by predicting the outcomes by rounds. We also use the consensus rankings obtained from individuals, systems and poll. We conclude that the consensus rankings were slightly better predictors in the early rounds but had the same limitations as the seedings in the later rounds.

Suggested Citation

  • H.O. Stekler & Andrew Klein, 2011. "Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games," Working Papers 2011-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    • Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2011-003
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    File URL: https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2011-003.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward H. Kaplan & Stanley J. Garstka, 2001. "March Madness and the Office Pool," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(3), pages 369-382, March.
    2. Bryan Clair & David Letscher, 2007. "Optimal Strategies for Sports Betting Pools," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(6), pages 1163-1177, December.
    3. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 1999. "Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-91, February.
    4. Harville D.A., 2003. "The Selection or Seeding of College Basketball or Football Teams for Postseason Competition," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 17-27, January.
    5. Metrick, Andrew, 1996. "March madness? Strategic behavior in NCAA basketball tournament betting pools," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 159-172, August.
    6. Caudill, Steven B., 2003. "Predicting discrete outcomes with the maximum score estimator: the case of the NCAA men's basketball tournament," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 313-317.
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    Cited by:

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