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An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios

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  • Karen Jackson
  • Oleksandr Shepotylo

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the welfare implications of the differential disintegration of the EU. Using a structural gravity approach, our estimates suggest that the rest of the EU countries have much more to lose from the disintegration of the EU compared to a disorderly Brexit. At the same time, neighbouring high‐income and middle‐income countries, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Norway, are expected to benefit from EU disintegration under some scenarios because trade would be diverted from EU countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Karen Jackson & Oleksandr Shepotylo, 2021. "An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 2-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:44:y:2021:i:1:p:2-20
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.13049
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    Cited by:

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    2. Steven Buigut & Burcu Kapar, 2023. "How did Brexit impact EU trade? Evidence from real data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(6), pages 1566-1581, June.

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