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Metaphorical Models for Limits to Growth and Industrialization

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  • John D. W. Morecroft

Abstract

In this paper, I present two system dynamics models and simulators to explore sustainability and limits to growth in industrial society. I first describe a small model of the fishing industry. I then use the same model as a metaphor to think about global growth and industrialization and to interpret the closed‐loop feedback structure and dynamics of Jay Forrester's World Dynamics model. This famously concise (yet dynamically intricate) model represents an industrial society whose growth is eventually curtailed. My approach with both models is to investigate the feedback structure surrounding investment policy. Building on this material, I examine the value of metaphorical models for interpreting puzzling phenomena in business and society. Finally, I discuss generic coordination problems in managing the growth of firms, industries and society. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • John D. W. Morecroft, 2012. "Metaphorical Models for Limits to Growth and Industrialization," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(6), pages 645-666, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:srbeha:v:29:y:2012:i:6:p:645-666
    DOI: 10.1002/sres.2143
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erling Moxnes, 1998. "Not Only the Tragedy of the Commons: Misperceptions of Bioeconomics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(9), pages 1234-1248, September.
    2. John D. W. Morecroft, 1985. "Rationality in the Analysis of Behavioral Simulation Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(7), pages 900-916, July.
    3. Simon, Herbert A, 1979. "Rational Decision Making in Business Organizations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 493-513, September.
    4. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    5. Martin H. Kunc & John D. W. Morecroft, 2010. "Managerial decision making and firm performance under a resource‐based paradigm," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(11), pages 1164-1182, November.
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    1. Roberto Pasqualino & Aled W. Jones & Irene Monasterolo & Alexander Phillips, 2015. "Understanding Global Systems Today—A Calibration of the World3-03 Model between 1995 and 2012," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-26, July.
    2. Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi & Tendai Polite Chibarabada & Vimbayi Grace Petrova Chimonyo & Vongai Gillian Murugani & Laura Maureen Pereira & Nafiisa Sobratee & Laurencia Govender & Rob Slotow & Albert The, 2018. "Mainstreaming Underutilized Indigenous and Traditional Crops into Food Systems: A South African Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, December.

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