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Mean Reversion of Short‐run Interest Rates in Emerging Countries

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  • Bertrand Candelon
  • Luis A. Gil‐Alana

Abstract

In this paper we examine the stochastic behavior of short‐run interest rates in several emerging countries using fractional integration techniques. We allow for a much richer flexibility in the dynamic behavior of the series than the classical representations based on I(0) or I(1) processes. It appears that for Singapore and Thailand nominal interest rates are mean‐reverting, whereas for Mexico, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Korea, the presence of a unit‐root test depends on the assumptions regarding the residuals’ autocorrelation. The results also suggest that uncovered interest parity (UIP) can only hold for two emerging countries. For the other countries, the stabilization policies in the aftermath of the currency crises have led to the rejection of the UIP hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertrand Candelon & Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2006. "Mean Reversion of Short‐run Interest Rates in Emerging Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 119-135, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:14:y:2006:i:1:p:119-135
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2006.00565.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert A. Connolly & Nuray Güner, 1999. "Long Memory Characteristics of the Distribution of Treasury Security Yields, Returns, and Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 943, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Candelon, Bertrand & Straetmans, Stefan, 2006. "Testing for multiple regimes in the tail behavior of emerging currency returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1187-1205, November.
    3. Jin-Chuan Duan & Kris Jacobs, 2001. "Short and Long Memory in Equilibrium Interest Rate Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-22, CIRANO.
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    1. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:65:n:3:a:4 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. da Silva, Cleomar Gomes & Leme, Maria Carolina da Silva, 2011. "An Analysis of the Degrees of Persistence of Inflation, Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rate in Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(3), September.
    3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis, 2017. "Central bank policy rates: Are they cointegrated?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 116-123.
    4. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2016. "Persistence and cyclical dependence in the monthly euribor rate," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(1), pages 157-171, January.
    5. Coleman, Simeon & Sirichand, Kavita, 2012. "Fractional integration and the volatility of UK interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 381-384.
    6. Tang, Kin-Boon, 2011. "The precise form of uncovered interest parity: A heterogeneous panel application in ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 568-573, January.
    7. Selçuk BAYRACI, 2017. "Long-memory, self-similarity and scaling of the long-term government bond yields: Evidence from Turkey and the USA," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(612), A), pages 71-82, Autumn.
    8. Tang, Kin-Boon, 2011. "The precise form of uncovered interest parity: A heterogeneous panel application in ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 568-573.

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