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Determinants of the Rate of Return for Nonresidential Real Estate: Inflation Expectations and Market Adjustment Lags

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Author Info

  • Yoon Dokko
  • Robert H. Edelstein
  • Marshall Pomer
  • E. Scott Urdang

Abstract

This paper analyzes the economic forces that determine the real rate of return for nonresidential real estate. Our analysis shows that the intermarket variation in the real rate of return is statistically significant, and the rate of return differs by land use and market area, as well as over time in response to changes in macro-economic conditions. We use inflation variables as surrogates for changes in macroeconomic conditions over time. In contrast to earlier studies, we find that nonresidential real estate may not outperform expected inflation. We believe that the impact of expected inflation (and other macroeconomic variables) on real estate rates of return depends upon the interaction of the macro-environment and specific local real estate market conditions. Finally, our empirical evidence suggests that the effects of a given shock dissipate rather quickly in most markets when we take into account locational and property use differences. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

Volume (Year): 19 (1991)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 52-69

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:19:y:1991:i:1:p:52-69

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Cited by:
  1. Yoon Dokko & Robert H. Edelstein & Allan J. Lacayo & Daniel C. Lee, 1999. "Real Estate Income and Value Cycles: A Model of Market Dynamics," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 69-96.
  2. Stanley D. Smith & Larry R. Woodward, 1996. "The Effect of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and Regional Economies on Apartment Values," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 11(3), pages 259-276.
  3. Robert Edelstein & Daniel Quan, 2006. "How Does Appraisal Smoothing Bias Real Estate Returns Measurement?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 41-60, February.
  4. Dirk P.M. De Wit, 1997. "Real Estate Diversification Benefits," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(2), pages 117-136.
  5. Stanley D. Smith & Larry R. Woodward & Craig T. Schulman, 2000. "The Effect of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and Overbuilt Markets on Commercial Office Property Values," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 19(3), pages 301-320.
  6. Dirk P.M. De Wit, 1993. "Smoothing Bias in In-House Appraisal-Based Returns of Open-End Real Estate Funds," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(2), pages 157-170.
  7. Brent W. Ambrose & Hugh O. Nourse, 1993. "Factors Influencing Capitalization Rates," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(2), pages 221-238.
  8. Doina Chichernea & Norm Miller & Jeff Fisher & Bob White & Michael Sklarz, 2008. "ACross-Sectional Analysis of CapRates by MSA," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(3), pages 249-292.
  9. Terry V. Grissom & James R. DeLisle, 1999. "The Analysis of Real Estate Cycles, Regime Segmentation and Structural Change Using Multiple Indices (or A Multiple Index Analysis of Real Estate Cycles and Structural Change)," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 97-130.

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