Population Aging and the Rising Cost of Public Pensions
AbstractRapid population aging is raising concerns about the sustainability of public pension systems in high-income countries. The first part of this study identifies the four factors that determine trends in public pension expenditures: population aging, pension benefit levels, the mean age at retirement, and the labor force participation rate. The second part presents projections to 2050 of the impact of demographic trends on public pension expenditures in the absence of changes in pension benefits, labor force participation, and age at retirement. These projections demonstrate that current trends are unsustainable, because without reforms population aging will produce an unprecedented and harmful accumulation of public debt. A number of projection variants assess the potential impact of policy options aimed at improving the sustainability of public pension systems. Although the conventional responses are considered, particular attention is given to the demographic options of encouraging higher fertility and permitting more immigration. This analysis is illustrated with data from the seven largest OECD countries. Copyright 2004 The Population Council, Inc..
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by The Population Council, Inc. in its journal Population and Development Review.
Volume (Year): 30 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0098-7921
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Francesco C. Billari & Vincenzo Galasso, 2009.
"What Explains Fertility? Evidence from Italian Pension Reforms,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2646, CESifo Group Munich.
- Francesco C.Billari & Vincenzo Galasso, 2008. "What Explains fertility? Evidence from Italian pension reforms," Working Papers 343, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Francesco Billari & Vincenzo Galasso, 2010. "What explains fertilit? Evidence from Italian Pension reforms," Working Papers 369, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Francesco C. Billari, 2009. "What explains fertility? Evidence from Italian pension reforms," 2009 Meeting Papers 807, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Francesco C. Billari & Vincenzo Galasso, 2008. "What Explains Fertility? Evidence from Italian Pension Reforms," CSEF Working Papers 209, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Billari, Francesco C. & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2008. "What Explains Fertility? Evidence from Italian Pension Reforms," CEPR Discussion Papers 7014, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Luca MARCHIORI & Olivier PIERRARD & Henri R. SNEESSENS, 2011.
"Demography, capital flows and unemployment,"
Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales)
2011040, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Luca Marchiori & Olivier Pierrard & Henri R. Sneessens, 2011. "Demography, capital flows and unemployment," CREA Discussion Paper Series 11-14, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
- Luca Marchiori & Olivier Pierrard & Henri R. Sneessens, 2011. "Demography, capital flows and unemployment," BCL working papers 69, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
- Marchiori, Luca & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R., 2011. "Demography, Capital Flows and Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 6094, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Melnikov, Alexander & Romaniuk, Yulia, 2006. "Evaluating the performance of Gompertz, Makeham and Lee-Carter mortality models for risk management with unit-linked contracts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 310-329, December.
- Jack DeWaard & James Raymer, 2012. "The temporal dynamics of international migration in Europe: Recent trends," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(21), pages 543-592, June.
- Koissi, Marie-Claire & Shapiro, Arnold F. & Hognas, Goran, 2006. "Evaluating and extending the Lee-Carter model for mortality forecasting: Bootstrap confidence interval," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-20, February.
- Verbič, Miroslav & Spruk, Rok, 2011. "Aging population and public pensions: theory and evidence," MPRA Paper 38914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.