Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Statistical calibration of climate system properties

Contents:

Author Info

  • Bruno Sansó
  • Chris Forest
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The behaviour of modern climate system simulators is controlled by numerous parameters. By matching model outputs with observed data we can perform inference on such parameters. This is a calibration problem that usually requires the ability to evaluate the computer code at any given configuration of the parameters. As the climate system simulator attempts to describe very complex physical phenomena, the task of running the model is very computationally demanding. Thus, a statistical model is required to approximate the model output. In this work, we use output from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology two-dimensional climate model (MIT2DCM), historical records and output from a three-dimensional climate model, to obtain estimates of the climate sensitivity, the effective thermal diffusivity in the deep ocean and the net aerosol forcing that control MIT2DCM. We use a Bayesian approach that allows for the use of scientifically based information on the climate parameters to be used in the calibration process. The model tackles the problem of dealing with multivariate computer model output and incorporates all estimation uncertainties into the posterior distributions of the climate parameters. Additionally we obtain estimates of the correlation structure of the unforced variability of temperature change patterns. These results are critical for understanding uncertainty in future climate change and provide an independent check that the information that is contained in recent climate change is robust to statistical treatment. These results include uncertainties in the estimation of the multivariate covariance matrices. Copyright (c) 2009 Royal Statistical Society.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2009.00669.x
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Royal Statistical Society in its journal Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics).

    Volume (Year): 58 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 485-503

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:58:y:2009:i:4:p:485-503

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 12 Errol Street, London EC1Y 8LX, United Kingdom
    Phone: -44-171-638-8998
    Fax: -44-171-256-7598
    Email:
    Web page: http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/rssc
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Web: http://ordering.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/subs.asp?ref=1467-9876&doi=10.1111/(ISSN)1467-9876

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Travaglini, Guido, 2014. "Testing the hockey-stick hypothesis by statistical analyses of a large dataset of proxy records," MPRA Paper 55835, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:58:y:2009:i:4:p:485-503. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.