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Allowing for non‐ignorable non‐response in the analysis of voting intention data

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  • P. W. F. Smith
  • C. J. Skinner
  • P. S. Clarke

Abstract

We apply some log‐linear modelling methods, which have been proposed for treating non‐ignorable non‐response, to some data on voting intention from the British General Election Survey. We find that, although some non‐ignorable non‐response models fit the data very well, they may generate implausible point estimates and predictions. Some explanation is provided for the extreme behaviour of the maximum likelihood estimates for the most parsimonious model. We conclude that point estimates for such models must be treated with great caution. To allow for the uncertainty about the non‐response mechanism we explore the use of profile likelihood inference and find the likelihood surfaces to be very flat and the interval estimates to be very wide. To reduce the width of these intervals we propose constraining confidence regions to values where the parameters governing the non‐response mechanism are plausible and study the effect of such constraints on inference. We find that the widths of these intervals are reduced but remain wide.

Suggested Citation

  • P. W. F. Smith & C. J. Skinner & P. S. Clarke, 1999. "Allowing for non‐ignorable non‐response in the analysis of voting intention data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 48(4), pages 563-577.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:48:y:1999:i:4:p:563-577
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9876.00172
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    Cited by:

    1. Clarke, Paul S. & Smith, Peter W.F., 2005. "On maximum likelihood estimation for log-linear models with non-ignorable non-response," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(4), pages 441-448, July.
    2. Park, Yousung & Kim, Daeyoung & Kim, Seongyong, 2014. "Identification of the occurrence of boundary solutions in a contingency table with nonignorable nonresponse," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 34-40.
    3. Ghosh, S. & Vellaisamy, P., 2016. "On the occurrence of boundary solutions in multidimensional incomplete tables," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 63-75.
    4. Li-Chun Zhang, 2001. "A method of weighting adjustment for survey data subject to nonignorable nonresponse," Discussion Papers 311, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    5. Elaine Zanutto & Eric Bradlow, 2006. "Data pruning in consumer choice models," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 267-287, September.
    6. Ib Thomsen & Li-Chun Zhang & Joseph Sexton, 2000. "Markov Chain Generated Profile Likelihood Inference under Generalized Proportional to Size Non-ignorable Non-response," Discussion Papers 274, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

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