IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/joares/v59y2021i1p243-281.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Implied Equity Duration: A Measure of Pandemic Shutdown Risk

Author

Listed:
  • PATRICIA M. DECHOW
  • RYAN D. ERHARD
  • RICHARD G. SLOAN
  • AND MARK T. SOLIMAN

Abstract

Implied equity duration was originally developed to analyze the sensitivity of equity prices to discount rate changes. We demonstrate that implied equity duration is also useful for analyzing the sensitivity of equity prices to pandemic shutdowns. Pandemic shutdowns primarily impact short‐term cash flows, thus they have a greater impact on low‐duration equities. We show that implied equity duration has a strong positive relation to U.S. equity returns and analyst forecast revisions during the onset of the 2020 COVID‐19 shutdown. Our analysis also demonstrates that the underperformance of “value” stocks during this period is a rational response to their lower durations.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia M. Dechow & Ryan D. Erhard & Richard G. Sloan & And Mark T. Soliman, 2021. "Implied Equity Duration: A Measure of Pandemic Shutdown Risk," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 243-281, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:59:y:2021:i:1:p:243-281
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-679X.12348
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679X.12348
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1475-679X.12348?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hassan, Tarek & Hollander, Stephan & van Lent, Laurence & Schwedeler, Markus & Tahoun, Ahmed, 2020. "Firm-Level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: Covid-19, SARS, and H1N1," CEPR Discussion Papers 14573, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Does Policy Communication during COVID Work?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 3-39, March.
    3. Hengjie Ai & Mariano Max Croce & Anthony M Diercks & Kai Li, 2018. "News Shocks and the Production-Based Term Structure of Equity Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2423-2467.
    4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    5. Croce, Mariano & Ai, Hengjie & Li, Kai & Diercks, Anthony, 2018. "News Shocks and the Production-Based Term Structure of Equity Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 12661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2017. "The cross-section and time series of stock and bond returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 50-69.
    7. Weber, Michael, 2018. "Cash flow duration and the term structure of equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 486-503.
    8. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Does Policy Communication during COVID-19 Work?," IZA Discussion Papers 13355, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Tyler Shumway & Vincent A. Warther, 1999. "The Delisting Bias in CRSP's Nasdaq Data and Its Implications for the Size Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2361-2379, December.
    10. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June.
    11. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Ralph S J Koijen & Nikolai Roussanov, 0. "Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 574-597.
    12. Hasler, Michael & Marfè, Roberto, 2016. "Disaster recovery and the term structure of dividend strips," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 116-134.
    13. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Robert Barro & José Ursúa, 2013. "Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 35-74, July.
    14. David Schröder & Florian Esterer, 2016. "A New Measure of Equity and Cash Flow Duration: The Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 857-900, August.
    15. Bansal, Ravi & Miller, Shane & Song, Dongho & Yaron, Amir, 2021. "The term structure of equity risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1209-1228.
    16. Shumway, Tyler, 1997. "The Delisting Bias in CRSP Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 327-340, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David A. Maslar & Matthew Serfling & Sarah Shaikh, 2021. "Economic Downturns and the Informativeness of Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1520, September.
    2. Zhang, Yuming & Xing, Chao & Zhang, Quanli & Zhang, Xinyue, 2022. "Crises and changes: The impacts of CSR expenditure on loan and subsidy allocation in China's Pre- and Post-Pandemic periods," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    3. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Who should be afraid of infections? Pandemic exposure and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Greppmair, Stefan & Jank, Stephan & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2023. "On the importance of fiscal space: Evidence from short sellers during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    5. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2022. "The role of non-critical business and telework propensity in international stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pier dup Lopez & J. David López-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2015. "Nominal Rigidities and the Term Structures of Equity and Bond Returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Matthijs Breugem & Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfè & Francesca Zucchi, 2020. "Dynamic Equity Slope," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 626, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
      • Matthijs Breugem & Stefano Colonello & Roberto Marfè & Francesca Zucchi, 2020. "Dynamic Equity Slope," Working Papers 2020:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Andrei S. Gonçalves, 2021. "Reinvestment Risk and the Equity Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2153-2197, October.
    4. Matthijs Breugem & Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfè & Francesca Zucchi, 2020. "Dynamic Equity Slope," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 626, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    5. Niels Joachim Gormsen, 2021. "Time Variation of the Equity Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 1959-1999, August.
    6. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Eben Lazarus, 2023. "Duration‐Driven Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1393-1447, June.
    7. Croce, Mariano M. & Marchuk, Tatyana & Schlag, Christian, 2022. "The leading premium," SAFE Working Paper Series 371, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    8. Bansal, Ravi & Miller, Shane & Song, Dongho & Yaron, Amir, 2021. "The term structure of equity risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1209-1228.
    9. Geertsema, Paul & Lu, Helen, 2020. "The correlation structure of anomaly strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    10. Michael Hasler & Mariana Khapko & Roberto Marfè, 2020. "Rational Learning and the Term Structures of Value and Growth Risk Premia," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 622, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    11. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2022. "Testing Factor Models in the Cross-Section," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    12. Ye Li & Chen Wang, 2023. "Valuation Duration of the Stock Market," Papers 2310.07110, arXiv.org.
    13. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2020. "Beta uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    14. Gonçalves, Andrei S., 2021. "The short duration premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 919-945.
    15. Liu, Hao & Chen, Yue & Wan, Wei & Zhang, Qun, 2021. "A novel explanation for idiosyncratic volatility anomaly: An asset decomposition perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    16. Li, Kai & Tsou, Chi-Yang & Xu, Chenjie, 2023. "Learning and the capital age premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 76-90.
    17. Zhu, Zhaobo & Sun, Licheng & Yung, Kenneth & Chen, Min, 2020. "Limited investor attention, relative fundamental strength, and the cross-section of stock returns," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4).
    18. Guo, Xu & Li, Runze & Liu, Jingyuan & Zeng, Mudong, 2023. "Statistical inference for linear mediation models with high-dimensional mediators and application to studying stock reaction to COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 166-179.
    19. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "An equilibrium model of the term structures of bonds and equities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    20. Bin Li, 2021. "Separating Information About Cash Flows from Information About Risk in Losses," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3570-3595, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:59:y:2021:i:1:p:243-281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0021-8456 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.