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Explaining Recent European Exchange-Rate Stability

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  • De Grauwe, Paul
  • Dewachter, Hans
  • Veestraeten, Dirk

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the behaviour of the bilateral exchange rates that were converted into euros on 1 January 1999. Using a model of stochastic regime switching we study the effects of future conversion on current exchange-rate dynamics. We find that exchange rates are to a large extent determined by the discounted (expected) conversion value. The theoretical model is subsequently applied to the currencies that participate in the first wave of the European Monetary Union (EMU). Using a Kalman approach, we find that for most currencies the weight attached to the future conversion value was well over 95%. This pricing characteristic successfully insulated intra-European exchange rates from the turmoil generated by the ongoing crises in Asia, Russia and Latin America. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal International Finance.

Volume (Year): 2 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 1-31

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Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:2:y:1999:i:1:p:1-31

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Cited by:
  1. Gunther Schnabl & Paul De Grauwe, 2004. "Nominal versus Real Convergence with Respect to EMU Accession - EMU Entry Scenarios for the New Member States," International Finance 0403008, EconWPA, revised 05 Jul 2004.
  2. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Reyes Maroto Illera, 2002. "Regimen changes and duration in the European Monetary System," Working Papers 02-05, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  3. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2005. "Assessing the credibility of a target zone: evidence from the EMS," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(19), pages 2265-2287.
  4. Naszodi, Anna, 2010. "Testing the asset pricing model of exchange rates with survey data," Working Paper Series 1200, European Central Bank.
  5. Anna Naszódi, 2007. "Are the Exchange Rates of EMU Candidate Countries Anchored by their Expected Euro Locking Rates?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 115-134.
  6. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Francisco Pérez-Bermejo, . "Credibility and Duration in Target Zones: Evidence from the EMS," Working Papers 2003-19, FEDEA.
  7. Paul de Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Nominal versus Real Convergence with Respect to EMU Accession.How to Cope with the Balassa-Samuelson Dilemma," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 20, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  8. Reyes Maroto Illera & Francisco Pérez Bermejo & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "An Eclectic Approach to Currency Crises: Drawing Lessons from the EMS Experience," Working Papers 2002-22, FEDEA.

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