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Scenarios for BRICS Evolution in Light of the India–China Conflict

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  • Mihaela Papa
  • Raj Verma

Abstract

What is the future of the BRICS (Brazil–Russia–India–China–South Africa) group? BRICS has transformed in record time from a global non‐entity into an informal institution that pursues global policy leadership, features extensive policy coordination among five powerful countries, and creates its own organizations. While BRICS momentum seemed unstoppable, a militarized dispute between India and China in 2020 raised questions about the group’s future. This contribution concludes the Special Section by arguing that the BRICS group is not broken. Instead, it faces a range of strategic, geopolitical and operational challenges: how it addresses them will define its future trajectory and its impact on global governance. This essay analyses the situation from a conflict resolution perspective while bringing together insights from the five BRICS countries. It conceptualizes new directions for the BRICS group. Two possible internal conflict management scenarios are outlined: circumventing conflict and making institutional adjustments. Yet the real test of the group’s resilience is its ability to exert collective leadership and improve global governance. BRICS’ response to COVID‐19 and to the challenge of sustainable development offers insights into the group’s ability to advance community goals.

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  • Mihaela Papa & Raj Verma, 2021. "Scenarios for BRICS Evolution in Light of the India–China Conflict," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(4), pages 539-544, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:glopol:v:12:y:2021:i:4:p:539-544
    DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.13010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Haibin Niu & Sheng Hong, 2021. "A Chinese Perspective: Will China‐India Friction Paralyze the BRICS?," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(4), pages 524-528, September.
    2. Victoria V. Panova, 2021. "Age of Multilateralism: Why is BRICS Important despite Possible Weaknesses? A Perspective from Russia," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(4), pages 514-518, September.
    3. Hongying Wang, 2019. "The New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: China's Ambiguous Approach to Global Financial Governance," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 221-244, January.
    4. Karin Costa Vazquez, 2021. "Brazil and BRICS Multilateralism à la Carte: From Bilateralism to Community Interest," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(4), pages 534-538, September.
    5. Sreeram Chaulia, 2021. "In Spite of the Spite: An Indian View of China and India in BRICS," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(4), pages 519-523, September.
    6. Andrew F. Cooper, 2017. "The BRICS’ New Development Bank: Shifting from Material Leverage to Innovative Capacity," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 8(3), pages 275-284, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aamir Aijaz Syed & Assad Ullah & Muhammad Abdul Kamal, 2024. "Does economic policy uncertainty impedes financial inclusion in BRICS economies: the mediating role of quality of governance," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 1-24, February.

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