Market Expectations in the UK before and after the ERM Crisis
AbstractThe British pound left the ERM on 16 September 1992 after a period of turbulence. UK monetary policy soon shifted to lower short interest rates, and an inflation target was announced. This paper uses daily option prices to estimate how the market's probability distribution of the future mark-pound exchange rate and UK and German interest rates changed over the summer and autumn of 1992. The results show, among other things, how various policy decisions affected the market's assessment of the probabilities of realignments and lending rate cuts. Copyright 2000 by The London School of Economics and Political Science
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.
Volume (Year): 67 (2000)
Issue (Month): 265 (February)
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Other versions of this item:
- Söderlind, Paul, 1997. "Market Expectations in the UK Before and After the ERM Crisis," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 210, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 01 Sep 1998.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
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- Robert R Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2000. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Bank of England working papers 114, Bank of England.
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- Cho-Hoi Hui & Tsz-Kin Chung & Chi-Fai Lo, 2013. "Using Interest Rate Derivative Prices to Estimate LIBOR-OIS Spread Dynamics and Systemic Funding Liquidity Shock Probabilities," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 131-146, May.
- Andersson, Magnus & Lomakka, Magnus, 2005. "Evaluating implied RNDs by some new confidence interval estimation techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1535-1557, June.
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