Market Expectations in the UK before and after the ERM Crisis
AbstractThe British pound left the ERM on 16 September 1992 after a period of turbulence. UK monetary policy soon shifted to lower short interest rates, and an inflation target was announced. This paper uses daily option prices to estimate how the market's probability distribution of the future mark-pound exchange rate and UK and German interest rates changed over the summer and autumn of 1992. The results show, among other things, how various policy decisions affected the market's assessment of the probabilities of realignments and lending rate cuts. Copyright 2000 by The London School of Economics and Political Science
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.
Volume (Year): 67 (2000)
Issue (Month): 265 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE
Phone: +44 (020) 7405 7686
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0013-0427
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Söderlind, Paul, 1997. "Market Expectations in the UK Before and After the ERM Crisis," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 210, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 01 Sep 1998.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Gustavo Abarca & José Gonzalo Rangel & Guillermo Benavides, 2010. "Exchange Rate Market Expectations and Central Bank Policy: The case of the Mexican Peso-US Dollar from 2005-2009," Working Papers 2010-17, Banco de México.
- Hui, C.H. & Lo, C.F., 2009. "A note on estimating realignment probabilities - A first-passage-time approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 804-812, September.
- Vahamaa, Sami, 2005.
"Option-implied asymmetries in bond market expectations around monetary policy actions of the ECB,"
Journal of Economics and Business,
Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 23-38.
- Vähämaa, Sami, 2004. "Option-implied asymmetries in bond market expectations around monetary policy actions of the ECB," Working Paper Series 0315, European Central Bank.
- Cho-Hoi Hui & Tsz-Kin Chung & Chi-Fai Lo, 2013. "Using Interest Rate Derivative Prices to Estimate LIBOR-OIS Spread Dynamics and Systemic Funding Liquidity Shock Probabilities," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 131-146, May.
- Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
- Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2005. "Explaining exchange rate dynamics: the uncovered equity return parity condition," Working Paper Series 0529, European Central Bank.
- Andersson, Magnus & Lomakka, Magnus, 2005. "Evaluating implied RNDs by some new confidence interval estimation techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1535-1557, June.
- Inci, Ahmet Can, 2005. "ERM effects on currency spot and futures markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 145-163, December.
- Robert R Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2000. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Bank of England working papers 114, Bank of England.
- Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo & Tsz-Kin Chung, 2008. "Market Expectation of Appreciation of the Renminbi," Working Papers 0803, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
- Bondarenko, Oleg, 2003. "Estimation of risk-neutral densities using positive convolution approximation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 85-112.
- Martin Mandler, 2002. "Extracting Market Expectations from Option Prices: Two Case Studies in Market Perceptions of the ECB's Monetary Policy 1999/2000," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(II), pages 165-189, June.
- Ruijun Bu & Kaddour Hadri, 2005. "Estimating the Risk Neutral Probability Density Functions Natural Spline versus Hypergeometric Approach Using European Style Options," Research Papers 200510, University of Liverpool Management School.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.