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Market Expectations in the UK before and after the ERM Crisis

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  • Soderlind, Paul

Abstract

The British pound left the ERM on 16 September 1992 after a period of turbulence. UK monetary policy soon shifted to lower short interest rates, and an inflation target was announced. This paper uses daily option prices to estimate how the market's probability distribution of the future mark-pound exchange rate and UK and German interest rates changed over the summer and autumn of 1992. The results show, among other things, how various policy decisions affected the market's assessment of the probabilities of realignments and lending rate cuts. Copyright 2000 by The London School of Economics and Political Science

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 67 (2000)
Issue (Month): 265 (February)
Pages: 1-18

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Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:67:y:2000:i:265:p:1-18

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Cited by:
  1. Martin Mandler, 2002. "Extracting Market Expectations from Option Prices: Two Case Studies in Market Perceptions of the ECB's Monetary Policy 1999/2000," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(II), pages 165-189, June.
  2. Vahamaa, Sami, 2005. "Option-implied asymmetries in bond market expectations around monetary policy actions of the ECB," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 23-38.
  3. Cho-Hoi Hui & Tsz-Kin Chung & Chi-Fai Lo, 2013. "Using Interest Rate Derivative Prices to Estimate LIBOR-OIS Spread Dynamics and Systemic Funding Liquidity Shock Probabilities," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 131-146, May.
  4. Gustavo Abarca & José Gonzalo Rangel & Guillermo Benavides, 2010. "Exchange Rate Market Expectations and Central Bank Policy: The case of the Mexican Peso-US Dollar from 2005-2009," Working Papers 2010-17, Banco de México.
  5. Ruijun Bu & Kaddour Hadri, 2005. "Estimating the Risk Neutral Probability Density Functions Natural Spline versus Hypergeometric Approach Using European Style Options," Research Papers 200510, University of Liverpool Management School.
  6. Hui, C.H. & Lo, C.F., 2009. "A note on estimating realignment probabilities - A first-passage-time approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 804-812, September.
  7. Andersson, Magnus & Lomakka, Magnus, 2005. "Evaluating implied RNDs by some new confidence interval estimation techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1535-1557, June.
  8. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo & Tsz-Kin Chung, 2008. "Market Expectation of Appreciation of the Renminbi," Working Papers 0803, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  9. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
  10. Robert R Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2000. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Bank of England working papers 114, Bank of England.
  11. Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2005. "Explaining exchange rate dynamics: the uncovered equity return parity condition," Working Paper Series 0529, European Central Bank.
  12. Bondarenko, Oleg, 2003. "Estimation of risk-neutral densities using positive convolution approximation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 85-112.

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