Cho-Hoi Hui (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority) Chi-Fai Lo (Institute of Theoretical Physics and Department of Physics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong) Tsz-Kin Chung (Department of Physics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong)
Abstract
This paper proposes a path-dependent approach for estimating maximum appreciations of the renminbi expected by the market based on first-passage-time distributions. Using market data of the renminbi spot exchange rates, non-deliverable forward rates and currency option prices from 21 July 2005 (the reform of the exchange rate regime) to 28 February 2008 for model parameters, the maximum appreciations of the renminbi estimated under the proposed approach show that the market expected another large movement of the exchange rate during the 14 months after the reform. Subsequently, the few occasions of appreciations beyond the expected maximums coincided with trade-related issues and speculation that greater momentum of appreciation would be allowed by the authorities. The PBoC¡¦s measures were however largely incorporated into the derivatives¡¦ prices. The proposed approach can be used to gauge the range of appreciations of the renminbi anticipated in the market and to identify any exchange rate movements beyond market expectations.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by Hong Kong Monetary Authority in its series Working Papers with number
0803.
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: