The trouble with naïve Keynesianism

Since the Keynesian Revolution of the 1930s, many prominent economists have argued that a useful policy response to economic depression is to boost government spending. But pressure to spend quickly increases the potential for waste and inefficiency: this is ignored or dismissed in the Keynesian literature. For example, a widely cited cost–benefit analysis of stimulus spending does not even acknowledge the possibility of waste, and some Keynesians go so far as to argue that wasteful spending during a crisis can nonetheless be desirable. Here we extend the typical analysis by accounting explicitly for the leading sources of cost including waste, resource costs, and the excess burden of taxation. Our results suggest that stimulus spending that is largely wasteful is unlikely to generate net wealth. A proper response to economic depression must consider the possibility that government waste can render stimulus spending counterproductive.