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Forecasting Regional Indicators Based on the Quarterly Projection Model

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Listed:
  • Alyona Nelyubina

    (Bank of Russia; Lomonosov Moscow State University)

Abstract

The paper presents a semi-structural model of a regional economy based on the standard version of the neo-Keynesian model in gaps. The main feature of this tool is its ability to predict regional indicators and model the regional heterogeneity of the national economy. In our model, Russia is divided into two macro-regions: the Central Federal District and the rest of Russia in aggregate. These regions are modelled separately but are interrelated. The benefit of this approach is that it allows us to analyse how shocks in one region are passed along to others, how the regions react to general shocks and what the appropriate monetary policy response should be. The model represents a simple and convenient tool for building macroeconomically consistent forecasts and generating recommendations in the area of monetary policy based on regional specifics.

Suggested Citation

  • Alyona Nelyubina, 2021. "Forecasting Regional Indicators Based on the Quarterly Projection Model," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(2), pages 50-75, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:80:y:2021:i:2:p:50-75
    DOI: 10.31477/rjmf.202102.50
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guenter W. Beck & Kirstin Hubrich & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2009. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the United States [‘On the relevance and nature of regional inflation differentials: The case of Spain’, Banc," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(57), pages 142-184.
    2. Yuriy Perevyshin & Sergey Sinel’Nikov-Murylev & Pavel Trunin, 2019. "Determinants of price level differences in Russian regions," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 772-789, November.
    3. Elena Deryugina & Natalia Karlova & Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Tsvetkova, 2019. "The role of regional and sectoral factors in Russian inflation developments," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 453-474, November.
    4. Zoltan Jakab & Pavel Lukyantsau & Mr. Shengzu Wang, 2015. "A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies," IMF Working Papers 2015/050, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jakob Haan & Helge Berger (ed.), 2010. "The European Central Bank at Ten," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-14237-6, September.
    6. Alex Pienkowski, 2019. "A Three-Country Macroeconomic Model for Portugal," IMF Working Papers 2019/281, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Gadatsch, Niklas & Hauzenberger, Klemens & Stähler, Nikolai, 2016. "Fiscal policy during the crisis: A look on Germany and the Euro area with GEAR," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 997-1016.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    semi-structural model; forecast; monetary policy; Russian regions; federal districts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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