Using Bayesian Techniques for Data Pooling in Regional Payroll Forecasting
AbstractThis article adapts to the regional level a multicountry technique recently used by Garcia-Ferrer, Highfield, Palm, and Zellner (1987) and extended by Zellner and Hong (1987) to forecast the growth rates in gross national product across nine countries. This forecasting methodology is applied to the regional level by modeling payroll formation in seven Ohio metropolitan areas. We compare the forecasting performance of these procedures with that of a ridge estimator and find that the ridge estimator produces forecasts equal to or better than those from the newly proposed estimators. We conclude that the ridge estimator, which does not reference the pooled data information introduced by the newly proposed techniques, may serve as a benchmark against which to judge the relative importance of this kind of information in improving forecasts.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.
Volume (Year): 8 (1990)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
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- Rickman, Dan S., 1995. "A bayesian analysis of the use of pooled coefficients in a structural regional economic model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 477-490, September.
- Kristie M. Engemann & Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2011.
"Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 207-222.
- Kristie M. Engemann & Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2008. "Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct, pages 15-29.
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